NFL Football Betting: Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings

By BetOnline September 4, 2019

0 Comments

The Atlanta Falcons were one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL last year. They were expected to be a playoff team after making two straight postseason appearances, but they instead ended up with a 7-9 record and finished third in the NFC North. Injuries to star defensive players like Keanu Neal and Deion Jones led to the Falcons taking a massive step back in 2018, but Atlanta is hoping to turn things around with Neal and Jones healthy once more. However, the NFL betting line has the Falcons as an underdog against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1.

ATLANTA FALCONS AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS
LINE: VIKINGS -4 -115
TOTAL: 47.5

We haven’t seen any real line movement on this game. Minnesota opened as a four-point favorite per the football betting odds over the summer, and that line has remained steadfast. There has been very little action on the total too with the over/under vacillating between 47.5 and 48 over the last few months.

INJURY REPORT

Star WR Julio Jones is listed as questionable due to a foot injury, so that’s something to keep in mind before betting this game. Jones has been Matt Ryan’s best receiver since being drafted by Atlanta earlier this decade, and an inactive Jones would affect the NFL odds. Reserve QB Matt Simms is on IR.

Minnesota won’t have back-up TE David Morgan for at least the first month of the season after he was placed on the PUP list due to a knee injury. Morgan is the only player with an injury designation per the Vikings’ injury list.

WHEN ATLANTA IS ON OFFENSE

It might not be the Greatest Show on Turf, but the Falcons are pretty great on offense. Matt Ryan is the favorite to throw for the most yards this season according to NFL Player Futures odds, and he has some serious weapons on the perimeter.

Jones has been the most consistent wide receiver this decade when he is healthy. He has led the league in receiving yards per game in three of the last four seasons and will be one of the league leaders once more provided he doesn’t aggravate the foot injury. Ryan targeted him 10.6 times per game in 2019.

Calvin Ridley could be primed for a breakout season alongside Jones. The second-year receiver from Alabama finished with nearly identical numbers to veteran Mohamed Sanu last season, and Ridley proved he can be a big play threat. His numbers dipped in December as he went through the rookie slump, but an offseason to prepare for the grind should prevent that from happening this year.

The Falcons have to succeed through the air, because they are unlikely to move the chains on the ground against Minnesota’s front seven. Ends Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen are a terrifying combination, and Linval Joseph can clog the middle. LB Anthony Barr has been selected to four straight Pro Bowls, and Eric Kendricks is a very good at the second level too.

WHEN MINNESOTA IS ON OFFENSE

The Vikings had two 1,000-yard receivers in Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs last season, so there are no concerns about Kirk Cousins’ ability to move the ball through the air. Unfortunately, the same can’t be said about Minnesota’s ground game.

Minnesota simply couldn’t run the ball last year. Although both Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray each ended the season averaging more than 4.0 YPC, too many run plays were unsuccessful. That led to the Vikings using their first-round pick on center Garrett Bradbury.

Bradbury and guard Josh Kline are two of the focal points on a revamped offensive line. The interior of this unit should be better than it was last year, but the tackles must perform better. Brian O’Neill should improve in his second season, while Riley Reiff needs to play up to his contract.

Atlanta’s defense was very susceptible up the middle last season. The loss of Jones and Neal was a huge blow to the Falcons, as those two are pivotal in stopping the runs. Their return should buoy the run defense, but there are concerns in the front seven. Grady Jackson is the only proven defensive tackle in the rotation.

PREDICTION

I believe Minnesota will take pains to establish the run early on. Mike Zimmer and the Vikings want to prove they believe in their offensive line, and they don’t want to get into a shootout with an Atlanta offense that can score a ton of points. That makes the ‘under’ a strong play considering the strength of Minnesota’s defensive backs. The total is currently at 47.5 per the NFL betting odds, and it might drop closer to Sunday.