NFL Football Betting: Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins

Maybe there’s just something about Baltimore that makes people divisive. After more than a decade of talking heads and fans alike debating whether Joe Flacco is elite, there is a similar debate occurring with Lamar Jackson. Jackson went 6-1 as a starter and posted passing numbers close to what we saw from Flacco after taking over for him last season. That has led to an offseason of questions regarding Jackson and his prowess as the Ravens’ quarterback, and he will look to answer them this year. Baltimore will kick off its season by heading south to take on the Miami Dolphins in Week 1.

BALTIMORE RAVENS AT MIAMI DOLPHINS
LINE: RAVENS -6.5
TOTAL: 38.5

The Ravens are the biggest road favorites in Week 1 per the NFL betting odds. It’s no longer an open secret that Miami is tanking the season in hopes of landing a star quarterback in 2020 or 2021, and the Dolphins are projected to be one of the worst teams in the league.

This line has moved considerably since Miami dealt OT Laremy Tunsil and WR Kenny Stills to Houston over Labor Day Weekend. Baltimore opened at -4 on the NFL betting line, and the Ravens shot all the way up to -7 following the news. It met resistance at that key number though, dropping to where it now sits at 6.5. The total has moved from an opening number of 37 to 38.5 as of Thursday morning.

INJURY REPORT

The Ravens placed CB Iman Marshall on injured reserve on Monday, so he will be unavailable this year. That move hurts as Baltimore’s secondary is already a question mark following Eric Weddle’s departure in free agency and CB Brandon Carr is questionable to play too.

Miami has eight players that are considered questionable on this week’s injury report. Most of those players are on defense as DE Trent Harris, DT John Jenkins, LBs Quentin Poling and Andrew Van Ginkel, and CBs Bobby McCain and Johnson Bademosi might not play on Sunday. On offense, G Danny Isidora and WR Albert Wilson are questionable.

WHEN BALTIMORE IS ON OFFENSE

The big question for Baltimore this season is how much the team plans on using Lamar Jackson as a runner. Jackson is the best running quarterback the league has seen since Michael Vick was making highlight reel plays each game with the Atlanta Falcons, but with running comes risk. Each time Jackson takes off, John Harbaugh will have a lump in his throat hoping that his quarterback doesn’t wind up injured.

Harbaugh has stated that he will incorporate Jackson’s mobility into Baltimore’s offensive scheme, but we don’t know what that will look like just yet. Jackson took off 147 times last year, and he ran the ball at least 10 times in all seven of his regular season games as the starter. He only averaged 4.7 yards per run though as teams keyed on him and would try to bait him into running as the season progressed. Keep that in mind when betting NFL Player Props this season.

The Ravens might be the most run-heavy team in the league by the end of the year. Baltimore signed Mark Ingram and drafted Justice Hill to pair with Gus Edwards in the backfield, and all three Ravens’ quarterbacks are known more for their running than their passing. Expect Miami to sell out to stop the run and try to force Jackson to beat its secondary through the air.

WHEN MIAMI IS ON OFFENSE

Whew, boy. This has the potential to be the worst offense in the NFL. Ryan Fitzpatrick is now starting for his eighth different team, and that is not a recipe for success. Although everyone loves Fitzpatrick for his quirky personality, he does not have a winning record with any of his seven previous teams.

There is an alarming dearth of talent at the skill positions. Kalen Ballage and Kenyan Drake are both decent running backs at best, and DeVante Parker is the only somewhat proven commodity at receiver. Stills was the most productive receiver last season with 37 receptions.

This is not one of the great Ravens’ defenses of the past though. Baltimore enters the season with plenty of questions to answer on that side of the ball. Weddle, Terrell Suggs, C.J. Mosley, and Za’Darius Smith all departed in the offseason, and the biggest acquisition was Earl Thomas. Miami isn’t likely to test them, but other offenses should have more success.

PREDICTION

This is the only game in Week 1 with a total under 40 per the NFL betting odds. It should be a very low-scoring game, but a lot of that has to do with offensive ineptitude rather than defensive prowess.

It’s not going to be a popular pick, but there is some value on the home underdog in this situation. Everyone is already writing Miami off, and while the Dolphins are unlikely to win, they should be able to keep it within the number in a low-scoring affair.

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