College Football Betting: Alabama at South Carolina

The Alabama Crimson Tide are going to be favored by 20 or more points in each of their next three games before they travel to College Station on October 12. Alabama will kick off its SEC slate this weekend when the Crimson Tide roll over to Columbia to take on Will Muschamp’s South Carolina Gamecocks. South Carolina stunned Alabama 35-21 when these teams last met in 2010, but the Crimson Tide are heavy favorites here.

ALABAMA AT SOUTH CAROLINA
LINE: ALABAMA -25
TOTAL: 61.5

There has yet to be any real movement on the NCAAF betting line for this game. Alabama opened as a 25.5-point favorite on Sunday night, and the odds have only seen a slight half-point move as of Thursday morning. The total has had a little movement though, rising from 60 to 61.5.

WHEN ALABAMA HAS THE BALL

Tua Tagovailoa is the current betting favorite to win the Heisman Trophy after finishing runner-up to Kyler Murray last year. Tagovailoa was unbelievable last season, completing 69 percent of his passes for nearly 4,000 yards with 43 touchdowns and six interceptions, and he has been even better through two games this year.

Alabama’s star quarterback hasn’t needed to throw the ball much, but he has completed 76.4 percent of his passes when he has opted to throw. Tagovailoa is averaging 10.2 yards per attempt, and he has thrown seven touchdowns without a single pick.

Tagovailoa’s favorite target is a player that is considered a potential No. 1 pick according to NFL Draft betting odds. Jerry Jeudy is seen as the best receiver in college football this year, and he already has two 100-yard games to his credit. Jeudy caught 10 passes for 137 yards and a touchdown against Duke, and he hauled in eight passes for 103 yards and three touchdowns last week versus New Mexico State.

Unsurprisingly, the ground game continues to gash opposing defenses for huge yards. Alabama is averaging 6.3 yards per carry, and Tagovailoa hasn’t even been used on designed runs yet. That’s a scary thought for opposing defenses.

This is not one of Will Muschamp’s better defenses. South Carolina allowed new North Carolina OC Phil Longo to have a lot of success with a balanced offense in the opener as the Tar Heels compiled almost 500 total yards in the opener. Alabama should have more success than that.

WHEN SOUTH CAROLINA HAS THE BALL

Senior quarterback Jake Bentley suffered a major injury in South Carolina’s loss to North Carolina, so the Gamecocks have turned to true freshman Ryan Hilinski. There was plenty of buzz surrounding Hilinski in the offseason, and he looked sharp in his debut against Charleston Southern. Hilinski completed 24 of 30 passes for 282 yards with two touchdowns and an interception, but there is a massive chasm between a mediocre FCS team and Alabama. The true freshman is likely to be flustered constantly on the afternoon.

The Gamecocks have averaged nine yards per carry through two games, but that’s not going to continue. South Carolina averaged just 4.1 yards per carry against a North Carolina defense that wasn’t good last season, and the hosts will almost certainly be unable to run against this Alabama front. However, Alabama is dealing with injuries in the linebacking corps, so some creative run blocking could create opportunities.

Alabama’s defensive line and secondary are both elite units stacked with future NFL players, so it will be tough for South Carolina to have consistent success in the trenches or through the air. Raekwon Davis is a massive defensive end that dominates on the edge, and he is constantly getting involved. The defensive backs are led by Trevon Diggs (younger brother of Stefon Diggs), and they have performed very well. Neither Duke nor New Mexico State are seen as above average passing teams this year though.

PREDICTION

As always, Alabama can largely dictate whether it will cover or not. The Crimson Tide have a massive talent advantage over every team they face, and they can obliterate most of their opponents. However, Saban often takes his foot off the gas pedal after a strong first half in order to save his players and his scheme ideas for the long grind of the season. I think we’ll see that here, and South Carolina will secure a backdoor cover.

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