Jets Odds Move After Report of Sam Darnold Illness

Thursday morning’s NFL injury wire brought the news that New York Jets starting quarterback Sam Darnold is ‘out indefinitely’ with mononucleosis. Given the usual progression of mono the expectation is that he’ll be out multiple weeks and possibly up to a month. The problem with mono isn’t just the illness itself which is accompanied by sore throat, headaches and ‘flu like symptoms’. After the primary symptoms subside the patient can continue to experience a swolen spleen and fatigue for up to several more weeks.

Darnold received the diagnosis late Wednesday night—head coach Adam Gase, offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains and a Jets trainer showed up at his apartment to give him the news. The second year quarterback didn’t practice on Wednesday which the Jets said was due to ‘strep throat’. The misdiagnosis isn’t a big surprise as mono and strep throat have many similar symptoms. The situation could potentially get even worse for the Jets. Although the team is keeping Darnold in ‘quarantine’ and away from the rest of the team it might be too late to avoid infecting other players. Mononucleosis is a viral infection with an incubation period of four to six weeks. One of the primary ways that it is transferred is sharing drinking utensils such as water bottles.

For the Jets, the immediate impact of Darnold’s mononucleosis is that backup quarterback Trevor Siemian will start on Monday night against the Cleveland Browns. With some projections suggesting that Darnold could be out until at least Week 5 Siemian will almost certainly start several games. Positional depth could become an issue for New York as the only other quarterback on the Jets’ depth chart is rookie Luke Falk. He’s been promoted from the practice squad to serve as Siemian’s backup but with no NFL game experience the sixth round draft pick out of Washington State is clearly an ’emergency option’ only.

The pointspread on Monday’s Jets/Browns game at BetOnline.ag saw a rapid and decisive reaction to Darnold’s diagnosis. The Browns had opened as a -2.5 road favorite and there had been little movement on the game until news of Darnold’s illness hit the wires. In a little over an hour the line shot up to Browns -6, eventually settling (for now) at Browns -6.5. The line could very well go higher if running back Le’Veon Bell is also unable to play. Bell did not participate in the Jets’ Thursday practice pending the outcome of a MRI on his injured shoulder. The total on the game has dropped from 46 to 44. As of now, the NFL futures odds on the Jets have remained unchanged with New York priced at +8000 to win the Super Bowl, +4000 to win the AFC Championship and +1000 to win the AFC East.

Pending the status of Bell, there’s good reason to expect some buyback on the Jets. The sharp line movement is typical of the betting public’s ‘kneejerk reaction’ to an injury to a key NFL starter. In this case, however, it’s unclear to what extent Siemian’s ‘replacement value’ at quarterback is less than Darnold. Siemian has three years of NFL experience and nearly twice as many starts as Darnold. The career quarterback ratings of Darnold (78.3) and Siemian (79.9) are nearly identical. Given the comparable experience and statistical metrics of the two quarterbacks the four point move is definitely unjustified. For that reason, you can expect some ‘sharp money’ to take the price on the Jets at some point prior to kickoff.

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