NFL Football Betting: New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams

It’s possible you may have heard a thing or two about the most recent meeting between the Saints and Rams. If not, welcome back to the grid. Here’s your update.

The Rams traveled to New Orleans back in January with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. The Saints were driving for the go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter but were the victims of an uncalled pass interference penalty on LA cornerback Nickell Robey-Coleman. New Orleans settled for a field goal and went on to lose in overtime.

Now the Saints are out for revenge, insofar as winning a Week 2 game on the road can replace winning the NFC Championship at home. If you strongly believe in psychological advantages, stop reading now and put your money on the Saints.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS
LINE: RAMS -2
TOTAL: 52

The Rams have their own advantages, though. They’ll get the Saints on a short week after their season-opening win over Houston on Monday night. They were 2.5-point home favorites against New Orleans in 2017 and won, 26-20. That was the Rams’ only home game against the Saints since moving to Los Angeles.

Another trend working in the Rams’ favor is their record against the NFC South. Since 2010, they’ve played 10 home games against NFC South teams and are 6-3-1 ATS. They’re 3-0 ATS against the Saints. On the other hand, the Saints are 3-9 ATS in road games against NFC West teams over the same length of time.

The trend working in the Saints’ favor is more of a good news/bad news situation. They won and covered in each of their last two games as road underdogs of 2.5 points or fewer. However, in their previous six such games, they went 0-6 straight-up and only covered once.

As for this week, the biggest strike against New Orleans is the matchup between rookie center Erik McCoy and reigning two-time Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald. Though McCoy seemed to do well enough against J.J. Watt and the Texans, Donald will line up inside more often than Watt does. Donald will also have legit game film to study, giving him an advantage against the rookie that the Texans didn’t enjoy.

One potential issue for the Rams is pass protection. Though Todd Gurley and Malcolm Brown were successful on the ground, Jared Goff didn’t play as well as expected. He tends to struggle against pressure and the Saints sacked Deshaun Watson six times on Monday. Left tackle Andrew Whitworth was the only Los Angeles lineman to leave Week 1 with a PFF grade higher than 60.

PICK: LOS ANGELES RAMS -2

As tempting as it is to take the Saints as underdogs given their motivational edge, they simply don’t have a history of performing well in this situation. In the Sean Payton era, the Saints are 3-9 straight-up in September road games as underdogs. They are 6-6 ATS, but they were getting at least three points in five of their six covers. 

The Rams have had also had an extra day to prepare, which Sean McVay will surely take advantage of. If the line moves back to what it was at the opening (LA -3) then the Saints are a more defensible pick. But as long as money is pouring in on the Saints, the Rams are the way to go.

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