NFL Football Betting: New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

It’s overreaction season! As tradition dictates, every year after Week 1 we forget everything we thought we knew before the season and focus on what we saw in everyone’s season opener.

As far as overreactions go, this one isn’t too bad. We all considered the Patriots to be one of the best teams in the league and the Dolphins to be one of the worst. The Patriots were likely to be double-digit favorites in this one. But the Patriots looked so good in Week 1 and the Dolphins looked so bad that now New England is laying 18.5 points in a road division game. That’s insane.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS AT MIAMI DOLPHINS
LINE: PATRIOTS -18.5
TOTAL: 48.5

Let’s start with New England’s history as big favorites. They’ve been favored by 18.5 or more five times in the Brady-Belichick era. They won all five games but didn’t cover once. In fact, they tended to struggle. There were two three-point wins, a seven-point win, a 10-point win and a 21-point win.

It should be noted that four of those five games came in New England’s near-perfect 2007 season and they haven’t been favored by this much since 2011. Perhaps the 2019 Patriots can succeed where their predecessors failed.

But it should also be noted that four of those five games were at home. The Brady-Belichick Patriots have only been favored by 18.5 or more on the road once: a 27-24 win over Baltimore in 2007 as 19-point favorites. The Patriots were only favored by two touchdowns or more on the road once this decade: a 23-16 win over Jacksonville in 2012 as 14-point favorites.

The Patriots also haven’t done well in recent trips to Miami. Though New England was favored in each of their last five road games against the Dolphins, they’re 1-4 both straight-up and against the spread.

The Dolphins have never been underdogs of 18.5 or more at home. The closest they came was 15.5-point underdogs when they failed to cover in a 49-28 loss to the aforementioned 2007 Patriots. However, they have been home underdogs of 10 points or more four times (all against the Patriots) and are 3-1 ATS.

In fact, as CBS Sports points out, this will be only the fourth time a road team has been favored by 18.5 or more. It’s a small sample size, but the home team covered each time. That includes the current record holder in 1987 (San Francisco -23 at Atlanta) when Joe Montana’s 49ers went up against a Falcons team that was missing most of their players due to the ongoing strike. As bad as the Dolphins looked in Week 1, they’re not replacement players.

If you’re looking to bet New England, there are a few things working in the road team’s favor. Antonio Brown could make his debut, which should help the Patriot offense even if he’s just a decoy. The Dolphins appear to be in disarray, with 2018 first-round pick Minkah Fitzpatrick granted permission to seek a trade. And Belichick is facing his former defensive coordinator, Brian Flores. Belichick tends to do well against those from his coaching tree.

THE PICK: MIAMI +18.5

Miami +18.5. Yes, New England is clearly the better team and they are likely to earn an easy victory. But laying 18.5 points is nearly unprecedented for a road team and the Patriots have had a ton of trouble in Miami over the last five years. It’s surely possible that the Patriots put an unholy beating on the Dolphins, but odds are Miami covers.

Oh, and the Miami money line is +925. Considering New England’s struggles in Miami, it’s worth a shot.

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