College Football Betting: Oregon Ducks at Stanford Cardinal

By BetOnline September 17, 2019

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The Oregon-Stanford game used to decide the winner of the Pac-12 North Division. In 2019, it looks like it could be a one-sided affair.

Both teams desperately need this game but for very different reasons. Stanford needs to get on track after getting smoked in back-to-back weeks while Oregon wants to prove they’re still a top team in the conference.

OREGON DUCKS AT STANFORD CARDINAL
CFB ODDS: OREGON -8
CFB TOTAL: 60.5

WHY THE DUCKS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The Stanford Cardinal are wounded and depleted. It is just that simple. Stanford had a decent team on paper when this season started, but the Cardinal have been ravaged by significant injuries which have not allowed them to be anywhere close to their best.

K.J. Costello missed a game with an injury but returned last week at UCF, and was not sharp. Inside linebacker Ricky Miezan is out for a number of weeks and his absence has been felt the past two weeks when USC and UCF pretty much did what they wanted to do against the Stanford defense. The defense looks nothing like the great defenses fielded by coach David Shaw earlier this decade.

The biggest injury for Stanford, though, is left tackle Walker Little. The 6-7, 304-pound behemoth was an anchor for this offensive line and was projected as a Top 10 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. He is out for the season and will require surgery for an injury he suffered in Week 1 against Northwestern.

Stanford is simply a mess right now, and with Oregon getting Stanford early in the season at a time when the Cardinal are vulnerable, everything sets up perfectly for the Ducks. Stanford might be able to adjust and become a really good team in a month or six weeks, but right now, the Cardinal simply don’t have enough time to make the changes and course corrections needed to be competitive. It is genuinely surprising that the line is only eight points, in the single digits. It feels as though it should be much, much higher.

WHY THE CARDINAL WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The big hope for Stanford – also the reason why this line is lower than many people might first think – is that Oregon has yet to fully prove itself. The Ducks lost a game to Auburn in Week 1 in which they dominated the first half but made huge mistakes and allowed a game to slip away. Oregon has continued to be maddeningly inconsistent, showing its talent in brief bursts but not finishing the job and playing a complete 60 minutes.

If Stanford can stay close in the first half, it can gain confidence and find a rhythm in the second half, drawing Oregon into a close game in the fourth quarter. The Cardinal will then count on the Ducks to panic and make a game-changing mistake. This is not a likely scenario, but it is not ridiculous, either.

Stanford gets up for Oregon games, so you know they’ll bring their best effort – whatever that may be. This is a rivalry game which means a lot to the Cardinal after the Chip Kelly-Jim Harbaugh matchup got this series revved up at the start of the decade in 2010. Emotion and a sense of desperation after two straight losses could fuel Stanford on an emotional level in this game and create a surprising result.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE TOTAL

The Stanford offense looks feeble right now. It has to score at least 24 points for this game to have a good chance of going over the number. It doesn’t seem likely against Oregon’s vastly superior team speed on defense. This game is likely to stay under the total.