NFL Football Betting: MVP Futures

Now that a quarter of the season has passed, the MVP race is taking shape. There aren’t any big surprises among the favorites, but we have a few suggestions before you place a bet.

THANKS BUT NO THANKS

LAMAR JACKSON +1000

The Ravens are 2-2 and Jackson has seen a decrease in passing yards in each game this season. He’s playing well, but not so well that he should be one of the three favorites for MVP.

AARON RODGERS +1200

In Green Bay’s three wins, Rodgers didn’t eclipse 250 yards. He broke 400 in the Packers’ lone loss. It doesn’t mean he’s bad or anything, but the perception right now is the Packers aren’t winning because of him. If that continues, no one’s voting for Rodgers.

BAKER MAYFIELD +2000

The Browns are 2-2 and Mayfield has four touchdowns and six interceptions. Even though Mayfield doesn’t belong anywhere near the MVP conversation, according to the odds he’s in the top eight. There’s no value here.

DARK HORSES

ALVIN KAMARA +5000

In a just world, Kamara would be getting a lot more MVP buzz now. He affects the game in so many ways and he basically has the Saints’ offense on his back until Drew Brees returns. He probably won’t have the incredible numbers a running back needs to get MVP consideration, but his value to the Saints is undeniable.

MATTHEW STAFFORD +6600

The NFC North is arguably the most wide-open division in the league. If the Lions win, it would be fair to say they came out of nowhere. Everybody loves an underdog. Stafford is Detroit’s best offensive weapon and he’ll get a ton of credit if the Lions are successful.

TOP FIVE

5. DAK PRESCOTT +1200

Dak’s numbers are comparable to Lamar Jackson but he’s 3-1 and has more attractive odds. It doesn’t hurt that he plays for America’s Team.

4. PHILIP RIVERS +4000

Rivers is third in the league in passing yards even though the Chargers’ offense hasn’t been at full strength yet. If Melvin Gordon, Mike Williams and Hunter Henry all come back healthy then Rivers could be unstoppable. 

3. PATRICK MAHOMES -125

Here’s the chalk pick, but Mahomes is the heavy favorite for a reason. Last year’s MVP leads the league with 377 yards per game and is tied for the most touchdowns (10) even though he didn’t throw one on Sunday. The award is his to lose but there won’t be much profit for those who bet on him.

2. RUSSELL WILSON +2000

Mahomes is the only quarterback with a higher rating than Wilson. Since Wilson typically starts slow and finishes strong, it’s worth noting this may be the strongest start of his career. If his numbers are already this good, his typical December surge could put him over the edge.

1. TOM BRADY +1000

The Patriots look borderline unstoppable and if Brady plays relatively well, he’ll be Mahomes’ toughest challenge. The numbers aren’t great compared to some of the other players on this list, but they don’t need to be. If the Patriots wrap up another top seed with 14-16 wins, Brady will get consideration regardless of the numbers.

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