College Football Betting: Utah State Aggies at LSU Tigers

The oddsmakers are expecting a lot of points in Baton Rouge on Saturday when the LSU Tigers host the Utah State Aggies. LSU has been one of the surprising teams of September with Joe Burrow emerging as a candidate to win the Heisman Trophy. The Tigers will start a daunting stretch that sees the Bayou Bengals face Utah State, Florida, Mississippi State, Auburn, and Alabama in their next five games beginning this Saturday. Going 4-1 during that stretch would be a huge accomplishment for LSU.

UTAH STATE AGGIES AT LSU TIGERS
ODDS: LSU -28
TOTAL: 72.5

We’ve seen a lot of action on LSU throughout the week. The Tigers were originally favored by 24 points per the college football betting odds, but that line has steadily risen to reach 28. It’s unlikely to surpass four touchdowns, but this total could keep rising. The over/under opened at 70.5 and has risen two points already.

INJURY REPORT

LSU had last week off, and that gave the Tigers an opportunity to rest some of their players that had been hampered by injuries. The linebacking corps have been hit particularly hard by injury, and linebackers Michael Divinity and K’Lavon Chaisson are questionable to play on Saturday. Defensive lineman Rashard Lawrence is questionable too. Chaisson and Lawrence have not played since LSU’s win over Texas, but both players are expected to return soon.

Utah State will be without defensive tackle Fua Leilua for the rest of the year due to a knee injury, and cornerback Zahodri Jackson is questionable after missing the Aggies’ last three games.

WHEN LSU HAS THE BALL

Burrow has been extremely impressive through the first month of the season. There wasn’t much expected of Burrow coming into the year after putting up decent numbers in 2018 but passing game coordinator Joe Brady has rejuvenated the passing attack. Brady has introduced schemes that he learned from Sean Payton during his time as an assistant with the New Orleans Saints, and the implementation has been phenomenal.

LSU is set to smash all sorts of records in the passing game this year. Burrow has completed over 80 percent of his passes, and he has 1,520 passing yards through four games this year. He has thrown for 17 touchdowns already this year, setting a single-game school record with six touchdowns through the air against Vanderbilt in the Tigers’ last game two weeks ago.

Jamarr Chase, Justin Jefferson, and Terrace Marshall Jr. all could finish with over 1,000 receiving yards, and all three receivers already have at least 20 catches and 300 yards this year. In an interesting twist, it’s been the run game that has been struggling to keep up with the Tigers averaging just four yards per carry. That number could rise against Utah State though as LSU is expected to wear down this front, making LSU’s NCAAF player props potential options for savvy bettors.

The Aggies have looked good on defense this year, and they are currently ranked 33rd in SP+. They had a tough time stopping Wake Forest in the season opener, but they have limited their last three opponents to move to 3-1. However, there is a massive talent gap between what LSU has and what Utah State has faced this year.

WHEN UTAH STATE HAS THE BALL

In the summer, the Utah State athletic department tried to sell quarterback Jordan Love as a dark horse Heisman Trophy candidate. The Aggies sent out little trinkets and candy to members of the media, but that money may as well have been flushed down the toilet after Love’s start to this season.

Love completed 64 percent of his passes and threw for over 3,500 yards last season with 32 touchdowns against six interceptions. This season’s numbers have been considerably worse though. Love is averaging a full yard less per pass, and he has already thrown five picks this season. He has just six touchdowns through the air, and Utah State’s offense is ranked 75th in the nation per SP+.

The running game has been respectable, averaging 5.3 YPC, but LSU’s defense likely wants to make a statement prior to starting conference play. The Tigers allowed 38 points to both Texas and Vanderbilt, calling into question Dave Aranda’s defense. Aranda is one of the sharpest minds in the game, and he is likely to fluster Love and the Aggies early.

PREDICTION

The question here is when LSU takes its foot off the gas pedal. The Bayou Bengals won’t want to show too much or play their starters too long given the stretch ahead, so the best bet would be to lay the points with the Tigers per the first half betting odds. LSU should be -17 or so, and the Tigers are a good bet as they want to put this one to bed early.

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