NFL Football Betting: Week 5 ATS Power Ratings

Here are our Week 5 ATS power rankings, where we throw out straight-up records and rank teams by their success against the spread.

1. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (2-1)

Since the 49ers already had their bye, we don’t have as much data to work with. What we do know is they easily covered twice against Tampa Bay and Cincinnati while nearly covering against Pittsburgh. 

2. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (3-1)

The Chiefs had stress-free covers in their first two games but had to work in their last two. They went down to the wire for a cover against Baltimore and picked up their first ATS loss of the season last week in Detroit.

3. BUFFALO BILLS (3-1) 

Betting on the Bills hasn’t been a relaxing experience, but it has been a profitable one. Two of their three covers were very close, but we’ll give them bonus credit for handling the Patriots. Their lone ATS loss came against the Bengals when they won 21-17 as six-point favorites. They’re also the only team with four unders, so they’re consistent across the board.

4. DALLAS COWBOYS (3-1)

The Cowboys were undefeated ATS entering last week, when they lost to the Saints, 12-10, as 2.5-point favorites. Before that, their biggest threat was the Dolphins, who lost by 25 as 22-point underdogs. They’ll contend for the top spot in these rankings if they cover in a tough game with the Packers.

5. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (3-1)

The Jaguars haven’t been favored once this season, but that suits them just fine. After getting smashed by the Chiefs in Week 1, the Jags responded by covering three in a row. Only one of them was stress-free, but Jacksonville bettors will take it.

6. DETROIT LIONS (3-1)

Like Jacksonville, the Lions have covered three in a row. If not for their embarrassing tie in Week 1 as three-point favorites against the Cardinals, they’d be the only undefeated ATS team in the league. We do knock them slightly since all their covers were nail-biters.

7. GREEN BAY PACKERS (3-1)

The Packers had two unimpressive covers entering Week 4, but were 3-0 ATS nonetheless. It turned out the Eagles would hand the favored Packers their first losses both straight-up and ATS last Thursday night. They have another tough matchup with Dallas this week.

8. LOS ANGELES RAMS (3-1)

The Rams suffered the same fate as Green Bay, enduring their first straight-up and ATS losses in Week 4. Despite three covers to open the season, the Rams were not exactly world-beaters. Then they lost by 15 to the Bucs as nine-point home favorites. Betting on the Rams has been profitable but frustrating, so they take the bottom spot of the seven 3-1 ATS teams.

9. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (2-1-1)

The Colts were looking much better until losing outright as six-point home favorites to the Raiders. It might be time to avoid the Colts until they get healthier.

10. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (2-2)

The Patriots may only have two covers, but what glorious covers they were. Anyone betting on New England in Weeks 1 and 2 was about as relaxed as a bettor could be. The Patriots haven’t covered since, but that could turn around this week against Washington.

11. TENNESSEE TITANS (2-2)

If you bet the Titans as underdogs, you’d be just as relaxed as those who bet New England in their first two games. As favorites, the Titans haven’t been able to win straight-up, much less cover. FYI: they’re three-point favorites against Buffalo this week.

12. CAROLINA PANTHERS (2-2)

The Panthers are 2-0 ATS since Kyle Allen took over. However, they were underdogs in both games. They’re favored by 3.5 against Jacksonville this week.

13. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (2-2)

Give Tampa credit after a huge cover against the Rams on Sunday. Though they’re wildly inconsistent in some ways, the Bucs are 2-0 ATS as underdogs. They’ll get three points this Sunday in New Orleans.

14. MINNESOTA VIKINGS (2-2)

On the other end of the spectrum, the Vikings are 2-0 ATS as favorites. They smashed their competition in those games, both at home. They’re favored again this week, but they’ll travel to New York to face the Giants laying 5.5 points. 

15. CHICAGO BEARS (2-2)

The Bears have been favored in all four of their games and are on a two-cover streak. Unfortunately, they basically don’t have an offense and things could get worse after Mitchell Trubisky’s injury.

16. OAKLAND RAIDERS

The Raiders are in the running for the most dysfunctional team in the league and they were underdogs in every game. But, to their credit, they’ve managed to exceed expectations a couple of times this year. This week, they host the Bears as 5.5-point underdogs.

17. NEW YORK GIANTS (2-2)

The Giants are now 2-0 ATS with Daniel Jones at quarterback. The Giants had two big losses before Jones, so he has clearly made a positive impact. Another cover this week and the Giants will go from 0-2 ATS to top 10 consideration.

18. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (2-2)

The Seahawks are frustrating since we could historically count on them to cover at home. They haven’t covered at home yet this season even though they had premium matchups with the Bengals and post-Brees Saints. Not only that, but they weren’t even close to covering. A home cover against the Rams on Thursday would do a lot to make us trust them again.

19. CLEVELAND BROWNS (2-2)

Give the Browns credit for recovering after what happened to them in Week 1. Still, the merciless beating they suffered at the hands of the Titans as 5.5-point favorites is difficult to forget. A cover against the top-ranked 49ers on Monday night will definitely help.

20.HOUSTON TEXANS (2-2)

The offense looks out of sync just a bit too often. As inconsistent as the Texans have been, it’s hard to trust them right now. Fortunately, they draw the Falcons this week, who are close to the bottom of these rankings.

21. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (2-2)

Everything is stupid, so the Saints are 2-0 ATS with Teddy Bridgewater as the starter and 0-2 with Drew Brees. Still, Bridgewater has not been particularly impressive. It’s a good story, but losing Brees is going to bite New Orleans at some point.

22. PITTSBURGH STEELERS (2-2)

This may sound familiar: the Steelers are 2-0 ATS with Mason Rudolph as the starter and 0-2 with Ben Roethlisberger. Everything is stupid. Even so, the Steelers don’t look like a team that’s going to cover often going forward. 

23. ARIZONA CARDINALS (2-2)

The Cardinals were surprisingly competitive in covering against the Lions and Ravens in Weeks 1 and 2, respectively. Then they absorbed a couple of beatings from Carolina and Seattle and weren’t even close to covering. Since the beatings were more recent, we have them at the lower end of the 2-2 teams.

24. CINCINNATI BENGALS (2-2) 

The Bengals can’t run or stop the run. In both of their ATS losses they were completely outclassed. Despite their 2-2 ATS record, they’ve done very little to inspire confidence. If Andy Dalton is the most trustworthy player on the team, that’s a problem.

25. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (1-2-1)

Entering Week 4, the Chargers hadn’t covered this season. Thankfully, the Dolphins are more than willing to help their opponents get back on track. Still, only one cover against the lowly Dolphins is nothing to get excited about. It arguably shouldn’t count. The Chargers do have a shot to add to their ATS win total this week against the Broncos, who have plenty of problems themselves.

26.  NEW YORK JETS (1-2)

Give the Jets credit for covering as 21-point underdogs to the Patriots before the bye. It’s fair to say New England called off the dogs, though, so the Jets could easily be 0-3 ATS. Until Sam Darnold comes back, it may be best to stay away.

27. BALTIMORE RAVENS (1-3)

The Ravens got a ton of respect after their 59-10 opening week win over the Dolphins. At this point, it looks like that game said more about Miami than Baltimore. The Ravens haven’t covered since and their defense is struggling. If they can’t get a cover as 3.5 favorites against Mason Rudolph’s Steelers, it’s time to sound the alarm.

28. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (1-3)

After opening the season with three ATS losses as favorites, the Eagles finally covered as underdogs. Two of those ATS losses were also straight-up losses, so perhaps the oddsmakers have overestimated the Eagles thus far. It’s anyone’s guess who to trust when the Eagles face the Jets as 13.5-point favorites.

29. DENVER BRONCOS (1-3)

With Joe Flacco at the helm, the Broncos have not been a fun team to bet on. Not only are they losing, but they’re ripping hearts out in the process. Their offensive issues are well-documented and now the defense can’t get healthy. You’ll never feel safe if you bet on the Broncos.

30. ATLANTA FALCONS (1-3)

Atlanta’s supposedly dynamic offense is averaging 17.5 points per game. They have a close cover against Philadelphia surrounded by a bunch of heartbreak. The big names on offense could eventually turn things around, but right now they’re one of the least attractive bets in the league.

31. WASHINGTON REDSKINS (1-3)

The Dwayne Haskins era got off to a rough start, meaning it wasn’t that different from the Case Keenum era. A filthy backdoor cover in the final seconds of Week 1 is the only thing separating Washington from being 0-4 ATS. Steer clear of this sinking ship at all costs.

32. MIAMI DOLPHINS (0-4)

What a surprise, the Dolphins are last in something. Though the Dolphins are not the only winless team in the league, they are the only one without a cover. They’ve done this despite getting an average of 18.3 points in each of their last three games. They’re a gambling nightmare.

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