College Football Betting: Tulsa Golden Hurricane at SMU Mustangs

The SMU Mustangs are off to their best start in 35 years. SMU is 5-0 and ranked in the AP Top 25 for the first time since the program was given the death penalty in the late 1980s. The Mustangs have looked very sharp on offense under Sonny Dykes, as Dykes is getting the most out of Chad Morris’ old players, and SMU will look to make it 6-0 when the Tulsa Golden Hurricane come to town on Saturday.

TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE AT SMU MUSTANGS
LINE: SMU -12.5
TOTAL: 64

Oddsmakers pinned the college football betting odds for this game right, as there has been little movement throughout the week here. SMU opened as a 13-point favorite, and the Mustangs dipped down to -12 before settling where the line currently sits. The total opened at 62 and has risen by two points since it opened.

RECENT HISTORY

Tulsa has had the upper hand on SMU this decade. The Golden Hurricane have won four of the last five meetings between these two teams, but every recent game between these two teams has been close. Each of the last six games have been decided by 10 points or less.

WHEN SMU HAS THE BALL

This offense is humming. The Mustangs are averaging more than 500 total yards of offense per game, and Shane Buechele has been great in this system. Buechele transferred in from Texas and has completed 69.4 percent of his passes for 1,385 yards with 10 touchdowns and five interceptions on the year. He has also been able to move the ball with his feet, averaging 3.8 YPC this season.

Reggie Roberson Jr. is one of the top receivers in the country, catching 30 passes for 510 yards and three scores, and James Proche made Sportscenter’s Top Plays last week after a beautiful one-handed catch against USF. He has a 1,000-yard season in his sights, and his 34 receptions are the most on the team.

The run game has been a big positive too. Dykes’ offense has been balanced, with Xavier Jones running for 525 yards and 10 touchdowns this season, and T.J. McDaniel is averaging 8.3 YPC. Jones could have a big day against Tulsa since the Golden Hurricane are surrendering 4.7 YPC on the ground, so take a look at his NCAAF Player Props.

Tulsa’s secondary has fared quite well this season. The Golden Hurricane have given up just 6.3 YPA, and they have played some good opponents. They held both Michigan State and Oklahoma State to less than 200 yards passing, which is quite the feat. Unfortunately, the run defense has been gashed, leaving Tulsa at 2-2 this year.

WHEN TULSA HAS THE BALL

The Golden Hurricane have one of the worst offenses in the country. They are averaging just 4.4 yards per play, but some of that is the result of playing top tier defenses like Michigan State and good defenses like Wyoming and Oklahoma State.

Zach Smith has completed just 58.5 percent of his passes this season, but he has stretched the field enough to averaging 7.5 YPA. Smith has thrown just five touchdown passes, but he has protected the ball well despite being harassed by opposing front sevens. He has been sacked 16 times in four games this year, and that’s not a recipe for success.

Tulsa is averaging 2.4 YPC, which is 125th in the nation. Much of that is due to the sack yardage that counts against teams’ rushing yards somewhat confusingly, but leading rusher Shamari Brooks is averaging just 3.9 YPC on his own accord.

SMU is allowing 26.6 PPG, but this defense is much better than you’d expect. The Mustangs are giving up just 4.6 yards per play, and the run defense and pass defense have both performed well this season. While opponents have completed a high percentage of passes, those have largely been underneath routes, and they leave SMU with advantageous down and distance scenarios.

PREDICTION

The Mustangs have won three of their five games by 20 or more points this season, and they must be feeling great after smashing USF last week. I see SMU winning this game by at least two touchdowns, easily covering the college football betting line.

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