NFL Betting: Green Bay Packers At Dallas Cowboys

By BetOnline October 3, 2019

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The Green Bay Packers started the season 3-0, but they are going to have a challenge avoiding a two-game losing streak. At 3-1 and coming off a three-game homestand, the Packers go to Dallas where the Cowboys are stinging after losing to the New Orleans Saints. This is our primetime, afternoon FOX Game of the Week but which team is the better bet?

GREEN BAY PACKERS AT DALLAS COWBOYS
NFL ODDS: COWBOYS -3.5
NFL TOTAL: 46.5

WHY THE PACKERS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The Dallas Cowboys ran into a buzzsaw against the New Orleans Saints. They scored just 10 points and were contained by a defense which did not allow Dak Prescott to feel comfortable. However, Prescott’s numbers have deteriorated by the week and a lot of the people who were praising him (and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore) have to reevaluate at this point. Prescott’s passer rating has decreased by the week going from 158.3 in Week 1 to 123.5 in Week 2 to 91.4 in Week 3 to 73.2 in Week 4.

Adding to the Cowboys troubles this week are a number of injuries that could hamper them. Chief among their concerns is left tackle Tyron Smith, who probably won’t play. Green Bay’s big success this year has been to pressure opposing quarterbacks without blitzing, so this looks like a good matchup for Green Bay. Through the first three games of the season, the Packers had the highest defensive pressure percentage (39 percent) on opposing quarterbacks, even though they had the fifth-lowest blitz percentage (19.5 percent) in the NFL. That pressure percentage went down in Week 4 against the Philadelphia Eagles, but that was a Thursday game on very short rest. The Packers are rested for this game. Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith, who have both excelled as pass rushers, could have a very good game.

WHY THE COWBOYS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The Green Bay Packers’ offense has not taken off under new coach Matt LaFleur. The Packers have not scored more than 27 points in any game this season and they have scored an average of 21.3 points per game, which is quite modest for Aaron Rodgers. The Packers will have a very hard time winning this game if they score 21 points and you have to wonder how they get to that number with the team so thin at wide receiver. Star wideout Davante Adams (toe) didn’t practice most of the week and even if he does play, he figures to be limited.

On defense, the Cowboys have to be salivating going up against a run defense that has been exposed time and time again. They are Pro Football Focus’ fourth-worst graded run defense as the Packers have given up 523 rushing yards in the last three weeks alone.

Last week, there were 12 plays in which the Philadelphia Eagles used 12 personnel against the Packers’ nickel defense. On those 12 plays, the Eagles ran the ball for over 80 yards, an average of nearly seven yards per carry. Look for the Cowboys to emulate that once again.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE TOTAL

Although we have Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott and a number of good offensive weapons in this game, under looks like the play here. The Packers have good cornerbacks and a good pass defense to slow the Cowboys and Amari Cooper. Meanwhile, Dallas should focus on pounding the rock with Elliott. With Rodgers also missing key weapons, under figures to be the right play here.