College Football Betting: Florida Gators at LSU Tigers

For the second straight week, the College Gameday crew will see the Florida Gators in action. However, while they were in Gainesville last week, this week they will be in Baton Rouge to see the LSU Tigers host the Gators. LSU is nearly a two-touchdown favorite per the college football betting odds, and that line has raised a few eyebrows in this tilt between top ten teams.

FLORIDA GATORS AT LSU TIGERS
LINE: LSU -13
TOTAL: 54.5

The last five games between LSU and Florida have been decided by one possession, but LSU’s strong start to the season has led to the Bayou Bengals being favored by 13 points on Saturday. Originally, Game of the Year NCAAF Futures lines had LSU favored by 4.5 points over the summer, but the Tigers opened up as a 13-point favorite on Sunday.

RECENT HISTORY

There have been some fantastic games between these two cross-division rivals over the last two decades. In their last 20 meetings, each school has won 10 times, underscoring just how even this series has been this century. Florida knocked off LSU 27-19 in Gainesville last season as two Joe Burrow interceptions in the final two minutes of the game sealed LSU’s fate.

WHEN FLORIDA HAS THE BALL

The Gators are already on their second-string quarterback this season after Feleipe Franks suffered a season-ending injury last month. Kyle Trask has done a good job keeping Florida undefeated, but Trask isn’t going to be at full strength this game after sustaining a knee injury in the win over Auburn last week.

That’s cause for concern considering what Dan Mullen likes to do on offense. Mullen is one of the innovators of the RPO, and it’s important that his quarterbacks be mobile in this system. He ran Trask a lot in the second half even though his quarterback was clearly not 100 percent, and if he’s slowed this week that will be a problem.

Emory Jones is the quarterback behind Trask, and he has not been an effective passer. When Jones comes in, he’s usually running the ball on a read look, so LSU will be sure to key on that. Keep that in mind when betting NCAAF player props for this game.

Florida is averaging just 4.3 YPC this season, but that average is brought down by the number of times that Trask has been sacked. The Gators’ offensive line has not been great this season, and LSU DC Dave Aranda will bring pressure.

The Tigers don’t have the great defense they did in the past though. This defense is 28th in the country per SP+, and LSU allowed both Texas and Vanderbilt to score 38 points earlier in the year. Florida could find some success in the passing game with a very good receiving corps.

WHEN LSU HAS THE BALL

Joe Burrow’s growth under passing game coordinator Joe Brady has been incredible. Burrow appeared to be the next in a long line of marginal LSU quarterbacks last season, but he has been much better than anyone predicted in 2019. That has led to Burrow becoming one of the favorites to win the top individual honor in the sport per Heisman Trophy betting odds.

There’s no doubt that Burrow has the numbers to be a Heisman Trophy finalist. He is on pace to smash most single season passing records at LSU, and he has completed 78.4 percent of his passes for 1,864 yards with 22 touchdowns and three interceptions this year. Ed Orgeron is trusting Burrow to move the chains through the air, and Burrow has responded by averaging 11.5 YPA.

That’s been great news since LSU’s normally strong ground game has sputtered this season. The Tigers are averaging just 4.2 YPC this season, and no running back is averaging more than 5.5 YPC. LSU has leaned on a stable of great running backs over the years, so it’s interesting that the year they finally have a quarterback, the running game has taken a significant hit.

Florida has some elite defenders, but the Gators have yet to face a great offense this season. Auburn was the best offense the Gators had seen so far this year and the Tigers were rated just 29th in the country on that side of the ball per SP+. Bo Nix looked like a true freshman against Florida, but Burrow is unlikely to make the same mistakes.

PREDICTION

The under is the best bet on the board here. Florida will slow down LSU’s offense somewhat, and it’s hard to see Trask doing much while limited against a fast defense. If the spread falls under 10, the Tigers will become a play, but the line has yet to move much.

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