Heisman Trophy Betting Odds Update

For the first time this season, Tua Tagovailoa is the odds-on favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. The Heisman Trophy betting odds on Tagovailoa shifted dramatically over the bye week, and he moved from a slight favorite at +175 to an odds-on favorite at -150 this week. However, Tagovailoa was in a similar position last year, and he ended up losing out on the Heisman after a couple bad games against elite defenses down the stretch. There’s value in other plays on the board, so let’s find it.

ODDS TO WIN 2019 HEISMAN TROPHY

TUA TAGOVAILOA -150
JOE BURROW +300
JALEN HURTS +350
JUSTIN FIELDS +1200
JONATHAN TAYLOR +2000
JAKE FROMM +2000
TREVOR LAWRENCE +3300
SAM EHLINGER +4000

The big move in Tagovailoa’s odds to win the Heisman Trophy is interesting considering Alabama was off last week. None of the other Heisman Trophy contenders had a bad game (although Jalen Hurts didn’t play great against Kansas), so the move is indicative of some bets coming in on Tagovailoa.
If the season ended today, there’s no question that Tagovailoa would be the favorite to win the award. He has the best numbers of any player this year, completing 76.4 percent of his passes for 1,718 yards with 23 touchdowns and no interceptions. Tagovailoa is averaging 11.6 YPA, and his stats are even better than they were last year when he was a heavy favorite to win the award in October.

Tagovailoa will face his toughest test yet this week when Alabama takes on Texas A&M in College Station. The Crimson Tide are favored by 17 points on the road per the college football betting odds, and the quarterback shredded Mike Elko’s defense last season. Tagovailoa completed 22 of 30 passes for 387 yards and four touchdowns, and he added a rushing touchdown in a 45-23 victory.

Joe Burrow could see his odds to win the Heisman Trophy drop considerably with a strong performance against Florida this week. Every college football fan will be watching this game on Saturday night, and College Gameday will be in Baton Rouge for the affair too.

Burrow had another fantastic performance against an underrated Utah State defense last week. The grad transfer from Ohio State completed 71.1 percent of his passes for 344 yards and threw five touchdowns with one interception. He has developed a reputation as a gunslinger, but while he has thrown three interceptions, he has thrown 22 touchdowns and is on pace to break many single season school records.

There is value on Burrow at this price. Given LSU’s reputation for producing underwhelming quarterbacks, his Heisman case will resonate with voters.

It’s going to take a truly special season for Jalen Hurts to win the Heisman. There is fatigue regarding Oklahoma quarterbacks given Lincoln Riley’s system, and Hurts would need to have a banner day against Texas on Saturday to have a legitimate chance.

Burrow threw for 471 yards and four touchdowns against Texas, and Hurts will probably have to surpass that to have a decent chance of winning the Heisman Trophy. No other opponent on Oklahoma’s schedule is a marquee name, and even if Iowa State and Baylor are schools with strong defenses according to advanced metrics like SP+, great games against those schools won’t resonate as much with voters.

The best value on the board lies in Justin Fields. Fields has Heisman Trophy betting odds of 12-1, and he could be the best player on the best team in the country. Ohio State is only fractionally behind Alabama per SP+, and the Buckeyes have flattened every opponent they have faced this season.

Fields doesn’t have the gaudy numbers that other contenders have in mid-October, but he has two things working in his favor. First, Ohio State closes out its season with games against Penn State and Michigan before a potential Big Ten Championship Game appearance. That will give Fields a spotlight to make a strong case at season’s end, and Ryan Day might take a page out of Lincoln Riley’s playbook to give Fields’ candidacy a boost since it helps with recruiting.

The other factor working for Fields is that he is not as likely to split the regional vote as other contenders. While Tagovailoa, Burrow, Jake Fromm, and Trevor Lawrence could all theoretically split the southern bloc, Fields’ biggest competition is Jonathan Taylor. Taylor is likely to fall out of the race if Wisconsin loses to Ohio State in a few weeks, so I love the price on Fields.

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