College Football Betting: Alabama Crimson Tide at Texas A&M Aggies

The $75 million dollar man is likely to be 3-3 after this week. Jimbo Fisher has yet to deliver the signature wins the Texas A&M Aggies were hoping for when they pried him away from Florida State at the end of the 2017 season. To be fair to Fisher, Texas A&M has a brutal schedule this season, but $75 million in guaranteed money doesn’t buy many excuses. A win over the Alabama Crimson Tide this weekend would change the narrative, but the Aggies are a massive home underdog per the college football betting odds.

ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE AT TEXAS A&M AGGIES

There has been some action on the Aggies since this line opened on Sunday evening. Texas A&M was initially an 18-point underdog, but some money on the hosts as led to this line dropping by 1.5 points. The total has seen movement too, rising from 60 points to 61.5 as of Wednesday morning.

RECENT HISTORY

When Texas A&M joined the SEC in 2012, the Aggies were roundly dismissed. Most SEC fans thought the Aggies would be an also-ran, and Alabama was expected to teach them a lesson in their first meeting. However, the Aggies shocked everyone by beating the Crimson Tide 29-24 in Tuscaloosa thanks to some Johnny Manziel magic.

Unfortunately for the Aggies, they have lost their last six meetings with Alabama, and they were pasted 45-23 in Tuscaloosa last year. Texas A&M has fared much better at home then on the road though, losing by an average of 11 PPG in Kyle Field and 33.3 PPG in Bryant-Denny Stadium.

WHEN ALABAMA HAS THE BALL

How is Texas A&M going to stop this offense? Alabama might have the most talent on this side of the ball of any recent Crimson Tide team, and the Aggies are going to be hard-pressed to stop Tua Tagovailoa and these receivers.

Tagovailoa shredded this Texas A&M defense last year, and he could do so again with three excellent receivers in Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs III, and DeVonta Smith. Jeudy and Ruggs are seen as first round picks in the 2020 NFL Draft, and Smith leads the team in receiving after a monster performance against Ole Miss in Alabama’s last game. That’s why Tagovailoa is the odds-on favorite to win the Heisman Trophy.

This quarterback is the best that Nick Saban has had during his time at Alabama, and he doesn’t make mistakes. Tagovailoa has yet to throw an interception this season, and he benefits from a running game that can churn out yards in big chunks and keep defenses honest.

You can’t envy Texas A&M defensive coordinator Mike Elko here. Although the Aggies have the No. 21 defense in the country by SP+ rankings, they are stuck between a rock and a hard place with Bama. No defense has stopped this offense yet, and Elko will need a brilliant scheme and some luck to succeed.

WHEN TEXAS A&M HAS THE BALL

Kellen Mond has not been great against quality opponents this season. While Mond has fared well against lesser teams like Arkansas and Texas State, he has had a tough time moving the ball against both Auburn and Clemson. Granted, those are two of the top defenses in the country, but Alabama won’t be any easier to throw against.

The Aggies could have some success running the ball though. While the Crimson Tide have a top ten pass defense, allowing just 5.6 YPA, they are ceding 3.7 YPC. Alabama’s front seven has been hit hard by injuries and attrition, and this is an area that Texas A&M could exploit in this game.

However, the run game hasn’t had much success, and none of the team’s four primary rushing leaders is averaging more than 4.0 YPC if you take out Isaiah Spiller’s 85-yard touchdown run against Texas State in the season opener. In fact, although Spiller is averaging 6.2 YPC, he has carried the ball 20 times for just 33 yards against Power Five opponents.

PREDICTION

Alabama should blast Texas A&M in this game. The Crimson Tide don’t have a tough opponent next week with Tennessee on deck, and Saban might want to pad Tagovailoa’s stats for a Heisman big after his quarterback fell short last year.

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