College Football Betting: Michigan Wolverines at Illinois Fighting Illini

By BetOnline October 10, 2019

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The Michigan Wolverines are 4-1 on the season but it’s probably the least inspiring 4-1 you’ll ever see. They got a big win last week against No. 13 Iowa but that was a very narrow victory. They clearly have not solved all their problems but the good news is that Illinois won’t offer much resistance this week.

MICHIGAN WOLVERINES AT ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI
CFB ODDS: MICHIGAN -22.5
CFB TOTAL: 49.5

WHY THE WOLVERINES WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The Wolverines are just over a three-touchdown favorite but that might not be such a huge number when you consider this Illinois defense has allowed at least 40 points to each of the two Big Ten opponents it has faced this season (Nebraska and Minnesota). They allowed over 700 total yards to Nebraska before the Huskers, in the final minute of the game, took a knee three times and technically lost enough yardage to push them back under 700. That’s how bad this defense is.

As bad as Michigan’s offense has been, the Wolverines crushed Rutgers a couple of weeks ago and Illinois is in that caliber of opponent. There is no reason why they shouldn’t similarly enjoy a complete rampage over and against an Illinois team which is directionless and shows no signs of progress under head coach Lovie Smith. Illinois is 90th in run defense; that’s about all you need to know as Michigan should be able to line up and tee-off with their big offensive line.

On the other side of the ball, Michigan allowed only three points to Iowa while forcing four turnovers and registering eight sacks. Illinois’ offense, which scored just 17 points against Minnesota last week, is about to get mauled.

WHY THE FIGHTING ILLINI WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The Fighting Illini might give up a lot of points, but they do play hard. They played Minnesota close in the first half of last week’s game and they played Nebraska tough the whole way. Illinois doesn’t have a lot of talent but they don’t quit, and that effort level should serve them well against a Michigan offense which is completely lost.

Michigan scored a first-quarter touchdown against Iowa last week and was shut out of the end zone the rest of the way. Shea Patterson is a mess at quarterback and Michigan doesn’t have an elite running back who can reliably gain five yards per carry. The Wolverines’ offensive line is not driving defenders off the line of scrimmage as expected and the receivers can’t easily get open against opposing secondaries. Offensive coordinator Josh Gattis is completely failing to deliver the wide-open, fast-paced offense he promised to deliver. There’s no question that this is a down year for Michigan. What bettors want to know is if Illinois can take advantage.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE TOTAL

There aren’t a ton of certainties on Michigan’s roster right now but it looks like we can trust the defense. They’ve done their part this season and are coming off a very strong game. Another effort like that and Illinois will have a tough time scoring any points.

The Wolverines will win easily, so I don’t like them to cover, but I don’t expect Illinois to score enough to get us to the over.