NFL Football Betting: Thursday Night Game Props

The New England Patriots are currently favored by 17 points over the New York Giants on Thursday night. This is the largest spread the Giants have faced in their history, as they are starting a rookie quarterback in Foxboro Stadium, and they are without their top four skill position players. While the game could be a rout, there are NFL Player Props to keep you entertained throughout the action, so let’s examine some of those options and find the value.

SONY MICHEL OVER 73.5 RUSHING YARDS (-113)

Michel has not had a great season. He is averaging just 3.4 YPC this year, and he has struggled to run the ball effectively without fullback James Develin paving the way. The second year running back out of Georgia ran the ball behind Develin in the I-Formation for most of the year, but with Develin sidelined for the rest of the season, he has been deployed in a new way.

Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels know how important it is to run the ball in the postseason, so they have schemed ways to get Michel going. He had his best game of the year last week against Washington, carrying the ball 16 times for 91 yards and a touchdown, and he should go over his total this week. New England won’t want to show anything against a lesser opponent like the Giants and on a short week, there’s only so much you can install. I think Michel will get at least 20 carries, so that’s another NFL Player Prop bet to consider tonight.

JAMES WHITE OVER 19.5 RUSHING YARDS (-103)

You might think I’m crazy for betting the over on both Patriots’ running backs tonight, but New England is going to provide a steady dose of the run throughout the evening. For far too long, the formula has been to use James White only on passing downs, and the Patriots will want to mix that up.
We saw the Pats mix it up last week as White had a season-high six carries. He has finished with 20 rushing yards or more in half of his games this season, and I believe he’ll get at least five carries tonight.

JULIAN EDELMAN UNDER 69.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-125)

Edelman has been Brady’s top receiver the last few seasons, and he is the Patriots’ leading receiver this year. However, Edelman might not have a big game tonight as he is dealing with chest issues. He is listed as questionable, but while he is expected to play, he might be limited.

He has only finished with 70 receiving yards or more in two of his five games this season, and Belichick won’t want to risk his top receiver too much given how often he goes over the middle. The NFL season is a marathon and not a sprint, so don’t expect Edelman to finish over his player props on Thursday night.

JON HILLIMAN UNDER 40.5 RUSHING YARDS (-113)

Hillman is set to get his first career start with Saquon Barkley and Wayne Gallman out of action against New England, but the Boston College product isn’t likely to do much against the Patriots’ front seven. Hilliman is a big, bruising short yardage runner that doesn’t have a gain of more than seven yards in 19 carries this season, and I believe the Giants will quickly move away from using him. He is the type of running back this defense swallows up.

TOM BRADY FIRST TOUCHDOWN SCORER (+3300)

Let’s try and hit it out of the park with the last play. Tom Brady has run for 1,000 yards and 20 touchdowns in his career, and the 42-year-old punched it in at the goal line against Miami in Week 2. Brady is not afraid to take it himself on short yardage plays, and the GOAT will occasionally run a naked bootleg too to leave the opposition feeling foolish. At 33-1, it’s well worth the minimal risk.

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