College Football Betting: Virginia Cavaliers at Miami Hurricanes

The Virginia Cavaliers are the only team in the ACC Coastal with an undefeated record. Virginia knocked off reigning division champions Pittsburgh in its season opener and outlasted Florida State in mid-September to move to 2-0 in conference play. That has left the Wahoos in great position to make it to their first ever ACC Championship Game, and they can take a commanding lead when they take on the 2-3 Miami Hurricanes this week. However, Miami (FL) is actually favored per the college football betting odds, so you know what that means.

VIRGINIA CAVALIERS AT MIAMI (FL) HURRICANES
CFB LINE: MIAMI -2
TOTAL: 42.5

There were certainly some eyebrows raised when the Miami Hurricanes opened as a short favorite over a ranked Virginia team this week. The Hurricanes have risen from being a one-point favorite per the NCAAF betting odds at the start of the week to being favored by 2.5 points over the Cavaliers, as the advanced metrics love Miami in this game. While Miami is 32nd in SP+, Virginia is rated 40th in the country.

RECENT HISTORY

Virginia knocked off Miami when these teams met in Charlottesville last season to halt a three-game winning streak in this series for the Hurricanes. This divisional rivalry is relatively new, but it has been very even over its short history with one caveat. When the Cavaliers win, they typically win by narrow margins as four of their five victories this decade were by seven points or less. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes’ average margin of victory in their four wins this decade has been 15.3 points.

WHEN MIAMI (FL) HAS THE BALL

The Hurricanes have not had good play from the quarterback position so far this season. Freshman Jarren Williams started the year under center for the Hurricanes, but he was pulled after a dreadful performance last week against Virginia Tech. Williams threw an interception on Miami’s first three drives, leading to the Hokies knocking off the heavily favored Hurricanes despite being two-touchdown underdogs per the NCAAF betting odds.

N’Kosi Perry is back in the saddle as Miami’s quarterback after nearly leading the Hurricanes back from a 28-0 deficit to get the win last week. Manny Diaz announced that Perry would be the starter on Friday night earlier in the week, and he has plenty of experience under center. Perry was the starter for most of last year, but he completed just 50.8 percent of his passes and averaged 5.7 YPA.

Miami has the playmakers to thrive if they have the ball in their hands, but the question is whether a quarterback can get them the ball. Perry has looked much better in limited action this season, completing 61.4 percent of his passes and averaging 8.8 YPA, but if he reverts to his 2018 form that doesn’t bode well for the Canes.
This Virginia defense can make offenses look bad. The Cavaliers are allowing just 4.2 yards per play, and they are in the top 20 in both pass defense and run defense. Bronco Mendenhall has one of the best defensive minds in the game, so Miami is going to run into issues moving the ball.

WHEN VIRGINIA HAS THE BALL

Bryce Perkins has been one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country. Perkins has had to do it all to get Virginia to 4-1 this season, as the Cavaliers have been unable to get anything going on the ground. He is responsible for 73.8 percent of this team’s total yards, and that’s a prodigious amount for any team not running an Air Raid-style offense.

Perkins has had to deal with more nickel and dime looks with Virginia averaging just 2.6 yards per carry this season. That average ranks in the bottom ten of the FBS, leading to Perkins turning to the air more and more. He has completed 66.5 percent of his passes, but he is averaging just 7.0 YPA and has thrown six interceptions.

Miami has one of the top defenses in the country, and Perkins will find it difficult to move the ball on the Hurricanes. They have the athleticism to stop him from doing much with his legs, and they will force him to throw with a front seven that is allowing 2.5 YPC.

PREDICTION

The under is a solid play, but I like the Hurricanes in this spot. Unranked teams have a great record against the college football betting line when they are favored over ranked teams, so expect Miami to win by a field goal or more.

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