College Football: Clemson Tigers at Louisville Cardinals

Did a win over the Florida State Seminoles put the Clemson Tigers back on track? We’ll find out soon enough. Clemson has not looked like a reigning national champion this season. We haven’t seen a defending champion look this shaky since Florida State’s 2014 campaign, but an abysmal ACC has worked in their favor. The second-best team in the conference is rated 30th in the nation per SP+, and Clemson will take on another underwhelming conference foe this week when they face the Louisville Cardinals.

CLEMSON TIGERS AT LOUISVILLE CARDINALS
CFB LINE: CLEMSON -23.5
CFB TOTAL: 60.5

Scott Satterfield has done an excellent job with Louisville through the first half of the season. The Cardinals are already over their season win total of 3.5 wins following a wild 62-59 win over Wake Forest, making Louisville the first Power Five team to pay out in their NCAA Futures odds. Clemson is a massive favorite this week, but there’s no doubt Satterfield has the program on the right track after Louisville imploded under Bobby Petrino in 2018.

RECENT HISTORY

These teams never met on the field before Louisville joined the conference in 2014, and the Cardinals have yet to beat Clemson. Louisville is 0-5 against the Tigers, although the Cardinals came very close to stunning Clemson when Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson was on the team. Clemson obliterated Louisville 77-16 in Death Valley last season.

WHEN LOUISVILLE HAS THE BALL

Louisville announced that former starting quarterback Jawon Pass would undergo season-ending surgery earlier this week. Pass has not played since a 42-0 win over Eastern Kentucky on September 7 as Micale Cunningham has taken over as the Cardinals’ starter, but the lack of depth at the position is now concerning.

Cunningham was taken out of last week’s game against Wake Forest in the second quarter due to a possible concussion, and he is questionable to play against Clemson. Cunningham has been solid this year, completing 66.7 percent of his passes for 820 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception, and he has been a prolific runner.

If Cunningham can’t go, that leaves just one scholarship quarterback available for Saturday’s game. Evan Conley has played well the last two weeks against Boston College and Wake Forest, as the freshman has completed 22 of 34 passes for 336 yards with two touchdowns and an interception in those two games. However, Wake Forest and Boston College have much softer defenses than Clemson, so Conley would be in for a rude awakening as a freshman against a Brent Venables defense.

Clemson’s defense is rated No. 7 in the country according to SP+, and the Tigers have been surprisingly great on this side of the ball. It was expected that the defense would have hiccups without its great defensive linemen from last season, but this unit has only slightly declined while the offense has had far greater concerns. The defense has conceded just 3.8 yards per play this year.

WHEN CLEMSON HAS THE BALL

Trevor Lawrence had his best outing of the season against Florida State last week. Lawrence completed 17 of 25 passes for 170 yards with three touchdowns and an interception. He continually dropped dimes against a defense that dared him to make the throws he had failed to make so far this season, posting his best QBR of the year in a 45-14 win.

However, there are still concerns about his turnovers. Lawrence threw just four interceptions in 397 passes as a freshman last season, but he has tossed six picks in 161 passes through six games this year. His completion percentage and YPA are close to the same, but the interceptions are a worry going forward.

Travis Etienne has relieved some of the pressure from Lawrence, running for 589 yards and five touchdowns despite carrying the ball just 14 times per game on average. Tee Higgins is averaging an astounding 22.9 yards per reception.

This Louisville defense will have a tough time stopping Clemson. The Cardinals were gashed by both Wake Forest and BC, and the Tigers have far more athletes than those two teams. Louisville’s defense is rated 91st in the country per SP+.

PREDICTION

I believe Clemson will continue to get right by pummeling Louisville in a big way. The Tigers shouldn’t have to worry about a letdown or lookahead given their remaining schedule does not feature a game against a ranked opponent, so look for Clemson to win by four or more scores.

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