College Football Playoff Odds Update for October 18, 2019

There have only been a handful of sizable changes in the College Football Playoff odds thus far in October. Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, and Oklahoma were four of the favorites to win the national championship during the preseason, and those teams have four of the five shortest odds on the board. LSU has joined the list of short list contenders, and even a Georgia loss didn’t lead to the odds on the Bulldogs dropping too much.

ODDS TO WIN THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFFS

Team	10/4 Odds	10/11 Odds	10/18 Odds
Alabama	+250	+275	+250
Clemson	+250	+275	+250
Ohio State	+650	+500	+500
LSU	+800	+700	+550
Oklahoma	+1000	+800	+600
Georgia	+650	+700	+1400
Wisconsin	+3300	+2000	+1600
Penn State	+4000	+3300	+3300
Auburn	+2500	+4000	+5000
Florida	+5000	+3300	+5000
Oregon	+8000	+5000	+5000
Michigan	+5000	+4000	+6600
Notre Dame	+6600	+5000	+6600
Utah	+5000	+5000	+6600
Baylor	+15000	+12500	+10000

Alabama wasn’t even tested by Texas A&M last week. The Crimson Tide pummeled the Aggies 47-28 in Kyle Field, and Tua Tagovailoa continued to showcase why he is the odds-on favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. Tagovailoa torched a very good Texas A&M defense for 293 yards and four touchdowns, and Alabama will be favored by at least 30 points in their next two games against Tennessee and Arkansas.

We’ll finally see the Crimson Tide face a real contender in November when Alabama hosts LSU on November 9 and travels to Auburn on November 30. Alabama will be favored per the college football betting odds in both games, but a loss to either foe could leave them out of the SEC Championship Game and potentially lead to the No. 1 team in the country missing out on a spot in the College Football Playoff for the first time.

Clemson’s odds remain low even though the Tigers would arguably be left out of the CFP if the season ended today. The Tigers have been less impressive than Alabama, Ohio State, LSU, and Oklahoma, but the Tigers are the defending champions and they have the easiest path to the CFP of any contender. There are no Top 25 teams in the ACC, and Clemson’s toughest test left this season will be at home against a Wake Forest team that just lost to Louisville. It’s hard to bet Clemson to win the national championship at this price, but the Tigers are close to a lock to make it.

The odds on the Buckeyes remain very tempting. Ohio State is the cream of the Big Ten once again, and they have won all six of their games by 24 points. The Buckeyes are the top team in advanced metrics systems like SP+, and the strength of the Big Ten means they can afford a loss and still make it to the CFP if they win the Big Ten Championship Game. We’ll see just how good Ohio State is when the Buckeyes host fellow contender Wisconsin in Columbus next week, and that will give us an indication of this team’s bona fides.

Oklahoma has a great chance to make the CFP after winning its toughest game of the season. The Sooners only beat Texas by seven points in the Red River Shootout, failing to cover the college football betting odds, but they outgained the Longhorns by more than 200 yards and would have won by double digits if not for some Jalen Hurts turnovers.
This defense is much better, making the Sooners an intriguing bet, but Oklahoma has never won a game in the CFP. The Sooners would likely be underdogs to Alabama, Ohio State, and LSU, so you might be better served waiting to bet this until later in the season.

Georgia was stunned by South Carolina last week, and the odds on the Bulldogs to win the national championship doubled as a result. However, Georgia still has a pretty clear path to the CFP. The Bulldogs always needed to win the SEC Championship anyway to ensure themselves of a spot in the playoff, and they will earn a trip to Atlanta if they take care of business the rest of the way.

Four shutouts in six games has led to many believing in the Badgers. Wisconsin was a true longshot to win the national championship at the start of the year, but their national championship odds have dropped precipitously. There is no value left at this price, and although Wisconsin’s defense has been great, they have played some very poor offenses.

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