College Football: Georgia Bulldogs vs. Florida Gators

The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party will almost certainly decide the SEC East once again. Florida and Georgia have combined to win 19 of the 27 division titles, and either the Gators or the Bulldogs will put themselves in excellent position with a win in Jacksonville this weekend. This is the only game between top ten teams, and one of just two games between ranked teams this weekend, so all eyes will be on Florida-Georgia.

GEORGIA BULLDOGS VS. FLORIDA GATORS
CFB LINE: GEORGIA -6.5
CFB TOTAL: 46.5

Georgia was initially a touchdown favorite per the Game of the Year betting lines in the summer, but the Bulldogs’ poor performance over the last few weeks led to sportsbooks opening UGA -3.5 on the initial CFB betting odds. That was obviously too low given that it has risen by three points over the last 48 hours and could pass multiple key numbers.

RECENT HISTORY

Florida dominated this rivalry in the 1990s and 2000s, but Georgia has been the better team in recent years. The Bulldogs have let out a lot of frustration the past two meetings, hammering Florida 42-7 in 2017 and waxing them 36-17 last year. They easily covered the NCAAF betting line in both victories.

WHEN FLORIDA HAS THE BALL

Dan Mullen is hoping to run the ball to take the pressure off Kyle Trask. Florida doesn’t have a great offensive line though, and the Gators haven’t had a lot of success with their ground game this season.

Florida is averaging just 4.3 YPC, and top running back Lamical Perine has only 460 yards and four touchdowns this season. The Gators are in the bottom half of the NCAA in yards per carry, but this is where you want to beat Georgia. Kentucky had some success running the ball against the Bulldogs, and other teams have faired decently against this front too.

Trask has been a better passer than anyone expected, but Mullen has done a great job of keeping him in manageable situations. He doesn’t have the touch of Feleipe Franks, but he can take advantage of mediocre secondaries with the help of a very good receiving corps. Trevon Grimes, Van Jefferson, and Freddie Swain are all solid receivers and Kadarius Toney is finally healthy and ready to return.

It will be tough for Florida to beat Georgia’s secondary though. The Bulldogs are conceding just 5.0 YPA this season, and that’s the third best average in the nation. Don’t expect the Gators to score much against the best defense they have faced this season.

WHEN GEORGIA HAS THE BALL

After the last few weeks, there are major concerns about Georgia’s offense. Jake Fromm was portrayed as a Heisman Trophy contender at the start of October, but abysmal performances against South Carolina and Kentucky sent his campaign careening off the tracks.

Fromm completed 54.9 percent of his passes and averaged just 5.9 yards per attempt against the Gamecocks. He threw three costly interceptions too, wasting scoring opportunities that would have led to the Bulldogs staving off the upset. It was the first time he had been really pressured all season, and Fromm did not acquit himself under duress.

His numbers were even worse the following week against Kentucky. While Fromm didn’t throw three interceptions, he completed just 9 of 12 passes for 35 yards in an ugly 21-0 win over a Kentucky team that didn’t have a quarterback.

It will be interesting to see if Georgia has adjusted during its bye week. Kirby Smart has an old school mentality and wants to run the ball and trust his defense, but the Bulldogs have been underwhelming along the offensive line. This unit was supposed to be one of the best in the nation, yet they haven’t performed well against great front sevens.

Florida’s defense is rated in the top 20 per SP+, and the Gators have a front seven that can get after the quarterback with Jabari Zuniga and Jonathan Greenard healthy. If they can stop the run, it might be a long day for Georgia’s offense considering Fromm’s struggles and the Bulldogs receivers’ inability to get separation.

PREDICTION

The under is a great play considering the strengths of these teams. Neither offense will move the ball well, and the first team to 20 points might win.

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