College Football: SMU Mustangs at Memphis Tigers

College Gameday is heading to an unusual location for the second straight week. The best pregame show in America went to Brookings, South Dakota for the Dakota Marker rivalry between North Dakota State and South Dakota State last week, and this week ESPN will head to Memphis. The Tigers are hosting the undefeated SMU Mustangs in one of two games between ranked teams in Week 10, and SMU will be out to keep its dream season alive.

SMU MUSTANGS AT MEMPHIS TIGERS
CFB LINE: MEMPHIS -5.5
CFB TOTAL: 70.5

SMU’s unbeaten campaign is expected to end this week. The Mustangs were initially +3 against Memphis per the opening college football betting odds, but that line has since jumped. The Tigers were favored by as many as 6.5 points on Tuesday before the line receded to where it currently sits. The total opened at 68.5 before rising to 70.5 points.

RECENT HISTORY

Memphis has knocked off its AAC West rival in each of the last five seasons. The Tigers have won all five games by at least 10 points, and they have outscored the Mustangs 256-80 over that stretch. The winner will become the frontrunner to win the AAC West, but while Memphis has knocked off Navy, SMU still has a date with the Midshipmen.

WHEN MEMPHIS HAS THE BALL

The Tigers boast one of the best offenses in the country. Although they lost great running backs like Darrell Henderson and Tony Pollard to the NFL in the offseason, they just reloaded at the position in Mike Norvell’s system.

Kenneth Gainwell has been very explosive as Memphis’ primary running back. Gainwell will surpass 1,000 yards for the season in this game, and he is averaging 7.1 YPC with 11 touchdowns on the ground. His vision is excellent, giving him plenty of opportunities against an SMU defense that is not as good as traditional stats indicate. While the Mustangs are allowing just 3.4 YPC, this defense is 50th in the nation in SP+.

Memphis is a fast-paced offense that runs to set up the pass. Brady White has posted excellent numbers this year, but he is not a quarterback that will beat you with his arm if he doesn’t have the run game working. The only two times he has thrown more than 30 passes this season were in the Tigers’ two worst offensive outings.

If SMU can stop Gainwell, the Mustangs stand a great chance of at least earning the cover per the football betting odds. That’s easier said than done though given Gainwell is Memphis’ second leading receiver with 12.9 YPC out of the backfield.

WHEN SMU HAS THE BALL

The Mustangs are the most fortunate team in the country according to Bill Connelly. SMU is 8-0 but given how this team is looked, Sonny Dykes should be 6-2 with the Mustangs rather than 8-0. This is the 40th best team per SP+, but the offense has come through when needed.

Texas transfer Shane Buechele has been excellent under center. Buechele is a solid passer, and he is displaying the talent that initially led to him starting over Sam Ehlinger. He has completed 63.2 percent of his passes on the year, averaging 8.1 YPA with 20 touchdowns and seven interceptions.

SMU must score at least 30 points in order to win this game. Buechele and company are running a whopping 83.8 plays per outing to try to make the most of their time with the ball, and it has led to a lot of confused and tired defenses. Xavier Jones has paced the running game with 884 yards and 14 touchdowns this year, while Reggie Roberson Jr. might be an early round pick after catching 43 passes for 803 yards and six touchdowns already this season.

PREDICTION

This might seem like too many points, but the total is right on. The over has been steamed because neither team will stop its counterpart often, resulting in one of the shootouts that both these teams are known for playing. I believe this game will end with at least 75 points, making the over the right side per the college football betting odds, and that Memphis will emerge victorious.

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