NFL Football: Detroit Lions at Oakland Raiders

By BetOnline November 1, 2019

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The Detroit Lions and Oakland Raiders both enter Week 9 as three-win teams as both have a lot of ground to make up in the playoff picture. Both have been competitive but both have let very winnable games slip through their fingers. That sets up for an intriguing showdown on Sunday where one team’s playoff hopes will take a sizable hit.

DETROIT LIONS AT OAKLAND RAIDERS
NFL ODDS: RAIDERS -2
NFL TOTAL: 50.5

WHY THE LIONS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The Lions should be so much better than their 3-3-1 record. They led the Kansas City Chiefs late in regulation but didn’t finish, they led the Green Bay Packers on the road late in regulation and didn’t finish, and they led the Arizona Cardinals by 18 points in the second half and blew that lead, falling into a tie. We’re not expecting them to get all of the breaks but this is a team which could be 6-1 right now. The flip side of it is that the Lions haven’t done as well as they should have. Executing late and finishing games has been a problem. Can they get the job done this week?

They should be the fresher of the two teams as the Raiders have been racking up the air miles as this will be their first home game since Week 2. They went to Minnesota, to Indianapolis, to London (versus the Bears), to Green Bay, to Houston and are now finally back home. Sometimes teams who return after a long road trip are flat in their first home game. If the Lions come out an execute for four quarters, they have the playmakers to earn this win.

WHY THE RAIDERS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

Even though the Raiders are 3-4, they actually have a very realistic chance of making the playoffs. This seems absurd, but look at the Raiders’ remaining schedule: they play the Chargers twice, the Bengals, Jets, Jaguars, Titans, and Broncos. Those are all games they can win and they might be favored in all seven of those games. The only remaining game in which the Raiders might not be favored is at the Chiefs on December 1 but right now, Patrick Mahomes is out, so who knows what happens there.

This looks like it should be a good matchup for the Raiders as the Lions defense has been terrible. They actually started the year but when you look at the rankings now, they’re quite lousy. Detroit allows 130.7 rushing yards per game (27th in the NFL) and they give up 289.7 passing yards per game, the most in the NFL. If the Raiders are able to ride rookie runner Josh Jacobs for 100+ yards, that’ll keep the pressure off of Derek Carr and the Raiders should have the upper hand. Speaking of pressure, the Lions only have 13 sacks on the year. Carr and the offense struggle when they’re facing good defensive Lions. Detroit doesn’t have one that generates a lot of pressure, so that’s great news for the Raiders.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE TOTAL

Try this stat: since 1966, the Lions are 13-36-1 in road games in the Pacific time zone. What that means is we shouldn’t expect a very crisp effort from them.

With two decent quarterbacks and two shaky defenses, we should get an over. The Lions’ defense has allowed an average of 34 points per game in its last two games, and those were both at home. The Raiders allowed 42 points to the Green Bay Packers and 27 to the Houston Texans, for an average of 34.5 points per game. The total seems very low here.