College Football: San Jose State Spartans at Boise State Broncos

Brent Brennan has really turned it around at San Jose State. Brennan took one of the most difficult jobs in football when he agreed to become the Spartans head coach in December 2016, and he went just 3-22 in his first two seasons. In his pivotal third season, he has proved he was the right man for the job though, leading San Jose State to a 4-4 record and flirting with bowl eligibility. The Spartans could announce themselves to the nation on Saturday night with an upset win against the Boise State Broncos.

SAN JOSE STATE SPARTANS +17 VS. BOISE STATE BRONCOS, O/U 59

The early action has gone against Brennan’s bunch. Boise State was initially -16.5 per the opening college football odds, and the line has crept up by a half-point. I expect this line to fall once again closer to kickoff though as San Jose State’s biggest loss of the season was by 18 points, and the Spartans have been competitive in each of their eight games.

RECENT HISTORY

San Jose State has never beaten Boise State. These teams have met 13 times over the years when they played in first the WAC and then the Mountain West, but the Spartans have never been able topple the Broncos. Their closest loss was a 23-20 defeat in 2006, but 11 of the Spartans’ 13 losses were by at least two touchdowns. Boise State has scored at least 40 points in nine meetings, but this stands a good chance of being the closest game in over a decade.

WHEN BOISE STATE HAS THE BALL

The Broncos are hoping that Hank Bachmeier will return to the field against San Jose State this weekend. Head coach Bryan Harsin has been quiet on the availability of the highly touted freshman, but the bye week gave Bachmeier some extra time to get healthy.

Bachmeier was injured against Hawaii a few weeks ago, and the Broncos are not the same on offense without him in the lineup. Chase Cord doesn’t have the same arm talent, and that led to Boise State falling on the road to BYU in Provo to end its chances of an undefeated season.

If Bachmeier is healthy and plays, he is one of the best young quarterbacks in the nation, so he makes this offense much better. He is completing 61.9 percent of his passes and averaging 8.8 YPA, while Cord is not as accurate and doesn’t have the same knack at throwing the deep ball.

Boise State is averaging just 4.3 YPC on the ground, but the Broncos might have some success running on San Jose State. The Spartans’ defense is outside the top 100 per SP+, and they are allowing 4.9 YPC.

WHEN SAN JOSE STATE HAS THE BALL

The Broncos haven’t been great on defense this season. Defensive coordinator Andy Avalos left to take the same position at Oregon in the offseason, and Boise State’s defense has regressed while the Ducks have thrived under Avalos’ tutelage. They have conceded 5.3 yards per play, and this is no longer a top 40 unit.

Josh Love has been great for San Jose State this season. It’s not easy to play quarterback for a team that is averaging just 3.3 YPC, but he has done enough through the air to lead the Spartans to four wins. Love has completed 59.4 percent of his passes, and he is averaging 8.0 YPA. He has thrown 15 touchdowns against three interceptions, and he has three pretty good receivers to throw to in Tre Walker, Bailey Gaither, and Isaiah Hamilton.

San Jose State’s offensive line has done an excellent job of pass blocking. While the ground game hasn’t had much success, the tackles have kept opposing defensive ends off of Love, allowing him to beat secondaries with his arm.

PREDICTION

Harsin’s silence speaks volumes. It indicates to me that Bachmeier is not quite ready to go, and he will be much less than 100 percent if he does suit up on Saturday. That gives San Jose State a real chance of pulling off a major upset, and I like the Spartans chances of covering the CFB betting odds.

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