NFL Week 9 Biggest Spread Moves

A smart bettor knows to monitor line movements as the week goes along. Often when the bet is made is nearly as important as who the bet is on. Here are Week 8’s biggest spread moves and the likely reasons for said moves.

NEW YORK JETS (-3) @ MIAMI DOLPHINS
OPENING: NEW YORK JETS (-6.5) @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

The Jets’ trade deadline activities could charitably be described as “rough.” After shipping Leonard Williams to the Giants, someone leaked that they were shopping both Le’Veon Bell and Jamal Adams. The problem is they didn’t get a deal done and now everyone is mad. Both Adams and Bell have since had sit-downs with various New York authority figures.

Still, the Jets have looked so incompetent over the last week that they probably shouldn’t be favored six against anyone. If they weren’t playing the Dolphins, they likely wouldn’t be favored at all. 

CLEVELAND BROWNS (-4) @ DENVER BRONCOS
OPENING: CLEVELAND BROWNS (-1) @ DENVER BRONCOS

Brandon Allen is set to make his first NFL start and presumably throw his first NFL pass this weekend. The 2016 sixth-round pick is likely keeping Drew Lock’s seat warm for a week and expectations are not high.

The odds make that clear, seeing as the Browns have spent most of the season getting blown out. Now they’re four-point favorites in Denver. 

HOUSTON TEXANS (-1) VS. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
OPENING: HOUSTON TEXANS (-3) VS. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

The Texans will travel to London to face the Jaguars in their second home. Their defense also took a hit with the loss of J.J. Watt for the season.

Bettors are also buying into Minshew Mania. The Jags have won two in a row and had close losses to the 4-3 Panthers and 7-1 Saints before that.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-2) @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
OPENING: MINNESOTA VIKINGS (PK) @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

This has been a difficult line to project due to the uncertainty surrounding Patrick Mahomes. Though Mahomes is only questionable, it’s still expected Matt Moore will be at quarterback for at least another week. High-priced offseason acquisition Frank Clark is expected to be out as well.

Meanwhile, the Vikings expect to see Adam Thielen return. They’ve won four in a row and the Chiefs haven’t won a home game since Week 3.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-3) @ BALTIMORE RAVENS
OPENING: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-4.5) @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

This line has been all over the place, getting as high as Patriots -5 before settling at Patriots -3. 

Four points is a key number since it’s outside of a field goal margin of victory. It makes sense that those looking to bet on Baltimore would jump at the chance to get them at +4 or higher.

In addition, the Ravens are coming off a bye. Bettors clearly have faith in John Harbaugh with an extra week to prepare. The widespread belief that Lamar Jackson is an MVP candidate could also be contributing. The problem is this is the first time Jackson has faced the Patriots. Bill Belichick always seems to have something special waiting for quarterbacks facing him for the first time.

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