College Football: LSU Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide

All eyes will be on Tuscaloosa this Saturday afternoon when the No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide host the No. 2 LSU Tigers in the most anticipated game of the college football season. The winner of this game will likely be the No. 1 team in next week’s College Football Playoff rankings, while the loser will still be in contention to make the CFP despite the defeat. It’s not quite an elimination game because of that, but the stakes are massive nonetheless.

LSU TIGERS AT ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE
NCAA FOOTBALL ODDS: ALABAMA -6
NCAA FOOTBALL TOTAL: 65

The Crimson Tide were originally -7 per the college football betting odds, but that line has since come down slightly. However, the most eye-popping number is the total. Oddsmakers set the total for this game at 65, highlighting how Alabama and LSU are led by their offenses more than their defenses this season.

RECENT HISTORY

Alabama has won the last eight meetings in this series, and most of these games have been blowouts. The Crimson Tide have won four straight games by double digits, and LSU hasn’t scored more than 24 points against Alabama since 2007.

WHEN LSU HAS THE BALL

Joe Burrow is the current favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, and the LSU quarterback is out to leave no doubt that the Tigers are the best team in the nation. Burrow’s development from his junior year to his senior year has been nothing short of remarkable. With the help of new passing game coordinator Joe Brady, Burrow’s numbers have jumped drastically. He has already set LSU’s single season record for passing touchdowns, single game record for passing touchdowns, and he is less than 500 yards away from setting the Tigers’ single season record for passing yards.

Burrow could also set the NCAA single season completion percentage record. Colt McCoy completed 76.7 percent of his passes with Texas in 2008, and Burrow has completed 78.8 percent of his passes this year. LSU’s passing game is more dangerous than ever, giving them a real chance to beat Alabama.

The Tigers might have success running the ball against the Crimson Tide for the first time this decade. Leonard Fournette, Derrius Guice, and Jeremy Hill couldn’t accomplish much against Alabama, but the Crimson Tide have seen injuries ravage their front seven. This is the most vulnerable Alabama’s run defense has been this decade, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire could have a banner day.

Alabama does have an excellent secondary, so the match-up between Burrow and these defensive backs will be something to behold. Nick Saban’s specialty has always been his ability to coach defensive backs, and he takes great pride in this unit.

WHEN ALABAMA HAS THE BALL

Tua Tagovailoa is expected to start on Saturday for the Crimson Tide. Alabama’s star quarterback has been the best passer the Crimson Tide have had under Saban, and his impact on this team is huge. Tagovailoa suffered a high ankle sprain in Alabama’s win over Tennessee in the third week of October, and that kept him out of this team’s game against Arkansas two weeks ago. The Crimson Tide had no problem covering the CFB betting odds in that game though, beating the Razorbacks 48-7.

Mac Jones doesn’t provide the same threat as Tagovailoa as either a runner or a passer, and there was little doubt that Tagovailoa would be named the starter provided he was healthy enough. Now, the question is just how healthy Tagovailoa will be on Saturday. He is unlikely to be as effective as a rusher, but he can still be deadly through the air.

Tagovailoa is on pace to be the third-most accurate quarterback in NCAA history this season, and he has three amazing talents at wide receiver. Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III are both projected to be first round picks, but DeVonta Smith is leading Alabama in receiving yards.

LSU does not have the same quality on defense it did in seasons past. The Bayou Bengals can be run on, and there’s only one Grant Delpit in the secondary.

PREDICTION

The highest scoring game between these two teams in the last decade was a 38-17 Alabama win in 2013. This game will have even more points, but I see LSU pulling off the upset in exciting fashion.

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