College Football: Iowa State Cyclones at Oklahoma Sooners

By BetOnline November 7, 2019

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Many people felt that the game between the Iowa State Cyclones and the Oklahoma Sooners would carry big weight in the Big 12 and in the national college football picture. As it turns out, Iowa State, who entered the season ranked No. 21, is just 5-3 and has fallen out of the Top 25 while No. 9 Oklahoma is coming off a loss to Kansas State. If Oklahoma is to have any shot of making the College Football Playoff, they better win and win big in this spot.

IOWA STATE CYCLONES AT OKLAHOMA SOONERS
CFB ODDS: OKLAHOMA -14
CFB TOTAL: 67

WHY THE CYCLONES WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The Iowa State Cyclones hope that whatever happened to the Oklahoma defense in the Sooners’ most recent game will continue to plague them in this game. The strong Oklahoma defense seen in the first half of the 2019 season was not present in the game against Kansas State two weeks ago. The Sooners couldn’t stop either the run or the pass as the Wildcats ran for 213 yards and passed for 213 as well. The 426-yard total for the KSU offense wasn’t the most important number; the time of possession was. The Wildcats’ biggest held the ball for 38, scoring slowly and painfully on most of its drives while milking the clock. Iowa State should have the weapons to do the same as they’ll definitely follow the game plan.

And before you think that Iowa State can’t win in Oklahoma, remember that ISU head coach Matt Campbell did precisely that two years ago. He won in Norman as ISU’s head coach in 2017, giving Lincoln Riley his first painful loss as Oklahoma’s head coach. Iowa State also played them close last year too in a 37-27 loss. The Cyclones are a tricky opponent which can give Oklahoma all sorts of problems if the Sooners don’t fix their defense.

WHY THE SOONERS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The Oklahoma Sooners will cover the spread because it is hard to say that their defense is broken. That defense played poorly against Kansas State, but it was the only time this year that the Sooners have looked that bad on defense. They’ve had a bye week to sort things out and they’ll get back on track here.

It’s often forgotten but it’s worth reminding bettors that during the Riley or Bob Stoops eras, the Sooners have been nearly untouchable at home but have often been vulnerable on the road. They’re a healthy 85-13 (84% winning percentage) in their last 98 as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 and they’ve won 16 of their last 18 as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points (12-6 ATS). They’ve lost just once in their last 17 home games (the loss to Iowa State) and you can rest assured that they’ll remember that loss and use it as fuel for the fire on Saturday.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE TOTAL

The Oklahoma defense will rebound here as Iowa State won’t be able to stick to the same game plan that Kansas State put together. More importantly, the Sooners defense will be much more focused to ensure that a second straight sloppy effort does not take place.

Iowa State is much weaker on the road as they score 41.2 at home compared to 31.0 on the road, while also averaging 62 yards less of offense. Look for the Sooners to roll here with the game staying under the number.