College Football: Iowa Hawkeyes at Wisconsin Badgers

By BetOnline November 7, 2019

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There’s a seemingly more important Top 25 showdown in the Big Ten this week as No. 4 Penn State takes on No. 17 Minnesota in a battle of undefeateds. However, the contest between No. 18 Iowa and No. 13 Wisconsin has plenty of meaning in Big Ten West standings – especially if Minnesota loses. Who is the best bet in this spot?

IOWA HAWKEYES AT WISCONSIN BADGERS
CFB ODDS: WISCONSIN -9.5
CFB TOTAL: 38.5

WHY THE HAWKEYES WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The Hawkeyes will bank on the simple reality that Wisconsin has played bad football in its past two games. Wisconsin lost to Illinois thanks to untimely turnovers, lapses in the secondary, a short missed field goal, and a late interception thrown by UW quarterback Jack Coan. All facets of the team broke down, causing Wisconsin to blow a 20-7 third-quarter lead and a 23-14 fourth-quarter lead. Then Wisconsin scored just seven points in a lopsided loss to Ohio State. The Badgers struggled to convert third downs – only 4 of 13 – and they kept handing the ball back over and over to Ohio State.

Wisconsin did shut out three separate opponents at home this season and four overall, but none of those teams – Kent State, Michigan State, Central Michigan at home, South Florida on the road – are any good. Iowa hasn’t won the biggest games on its schedule, but it has played those big games very close, losing by only seven points to Michigan and only five to Penn State.

This is really a matchup of which team will be able to stop the run, which offense will be able to convert third downs and which team will be able to avoid mistakes. Iowa is ranked No. 8 in run defense, 27^th in giveaways but is 39^th in third-down conversion percentage. They’ve been much worse of late, converting just 35.4% over their last three contests. If they can bump that number up, they’ll have a shot here.

WHY THE BADGERS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The Badgers’ two-game losing streak occurred on the road; Wisconsin remains perfect at home this season and its defense has not allowed more than 15 points in any home game this year. For the most part, this is a matchup of two teams who mirror each other but Wisconsin does everything better and that home-field advantage should be a factor.

We mentioned the shaky third-down conversions for Wisconsin the last couple of weeks but this team is eighth in the country in this category. Normally, they excel here and convert a very healthy 52.9% at home. They’ll just keep chipping away at the Iowa defense, hammering away with running back Jonathan Taylor, and eventually they’ll break through.

Both teams are off a bye but the Badgers needed it more. If they didn’t have it, Iowa would probably be catching them at a good time. Instead, Wisconsin has had a chance to regroup. Iowa quarterback Nathan Stanley has really struggled away from home, completing 8.9% less of his passes (than at home) with just one touchdown and three interceptions. Wisconsin should rough him up here.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE TOTAL

The offenses simply do not deserve to be trusted in this game. It would be foolish to bank on either offense exploding for 28 or more points as both units are going to grind it out on the ground, try to control the ball and play good defense. Add in the fact that it’s been cold in Wisconsin this week – it even snowed – and this should be an ugly, low-scoring game.