College Football: Oklahoma Sooners at Baylor Bears

The Selection Committee is not giving the Baylor Bears any respect. Baylor is one of five remaining undefeated teams in college football, but the Bears are No. 13 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings. They dropped from No. 12 to No. 13 despite moving to 9-0 after a triple overtime win against TCU last week, and they are double digit underdogs per the college football betting odds at home against the Oklahoma Sooners this week.

OKLAHOMA SOONERS AT BAYLOR BEARS
CFB ODDS: OKLAHOMA -10
CFB TOTAL: 67.5

This line has moved considerably since it opened. Oklahoma was initially -8.5 on the opening college football betting odds, but the Sooners have been bet up to -10. This game is in Waco, but Oklahoma has beat Baylor in 25 of the 28 meetings between these two schools and most of them have been blowouts. The total has not moved since it opened.

RECENT HISTORY

The team that has won the last nine games in this series has scored at least 41 points in its victory. Oklahoma has largely had the better of Baylor, yet Art Briles knocked off the Sooners three times earlier this decade. Briles used his Air Raid offense to light up Oklahoma’s defense in those victories, but Matt Rhule has a much different scheme that emphasizes defense.

WHEN OKLAHOMA HAS THE BALL

Baylor has the best defense in the Big 12, so Oklahoma’s offense will receive its toughest test to date. Thus far, the Sooners have passed all their tests with flying colors, as Jalen Hurts is posting mind boggling numbers. Hurts is on pace to smash some lofty records. He is averaging an incredibly 13.3 YPA in Lincoln Riley’s offense, completing 73.3 percent of his passes for over 2,700 yards with 24 touchdowns and four interceptions.

Hurts has been incredible in the run game too. He has run for 869 yards and 15 touchdowns this season, and those gaudy numbers are why he remains a contender for the Heisman Trophy.

The Sooners have incredible talent at the skill positions too. Oklahoma lost Trey Sermon for the season in last week’s 42-41 win over Iowa State, but Kennedy Brooks and Rhamondre Stevenson are both averaging more than 8.2 YPC on the year. CeeDee Lamb has made a name for himself as one of the top receivers in the nation with 44 receptions for 983 yards and 13 touchdowns, and Charleston Rambo is also averaging over 21.0 yards per reception.

Despite playing in the offense heavy Big 12, Baylor has shined on defense. The Bears held TCU to nine points in regulation last week, and they are allowing just 4.4 yards per play. Baylor’s front seven is allowing just 3.3 YPC while the secondary is allowing 6.0 YPA, showcasing a balance that is uncommon in this conference.

WHEN BAYLOR HAS THE BALL

Perhaps we were a little premature when we declared that Oklahoma had solved its problems on defense. The Sooners’ defense had improved markedly under Alex Grinch through the first half of 2019, but they have had real trouble against Kansas State and Iowa State the last two weeks. Neither team is particularly talented, indicating flaws in Grinch’s scheme, and those will need to be addressed for Oklahoma to make the CFP. They remain the Big 12’s best hope to win the national championship with odds of 20-1, but we saw this defense get exploited by Georgia and Alabama in each of the last two CFP Semifinals.

Baylor doesn’t have a great offense. Matt Rhule prioritizes ball control and winning the time of possession battle, and that is reflected in his scheme. The Bears run the ball more than they pass even though this is one of the most efficient passing attacks in the country. They are averaging 9.1 YPA with Charlie Brewer completing nearly two-thirds of his passes for over 2,300 yards with 16 touchdowns and four interceptions.

Denzel Mims and Tyquan Thornton have been Brewer’s favorite receivers, while John Lovett and Jamycal Hasty have split the carries at running back. The latter duo is averaging a shade over 6.0 YPC this season, but they have run into trouble with the ground game in recent weeks.

PREDICTION

Oklahoma is going to score at least 40 points on Baylor, so the question is whether the Bears can keep up? I think they’ll be able to as Rhule turns Brewer loose in a game that flies over the total.