NFL Home Underdogs for Week 11

Home underdogs had a fantastic week against the NFL betting odds in Week 10. Underdogs went 3-1 ATS with all three dogs winning outright as Oakland, Pittsburgh, and the New York Jets all secured victories. The lone loser was the hapless Cincinnati Bengals who were eviscerated by the Baltimore Ravens in a total beatdown. Regardless, home underdogs are 8-2 ATS over the last two weeks and they have won seven of those games straight up. Keep that in mind as we look at the home underdogs in Week 11.

NFL WEEK 11 BETTING ODDS

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS +5.5 VS. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

The Buccaneers squeezed out a win over Arizona last week in their first home game in nearly seven weeks. Tampa Bay is elated to be back at home, and the Bucs are looking to pick up just their second home win of the year this Sunday against New Orleans.

The Saints haven’t had the best luck against the Buccaneers in recent years. They have dropped at least one of their two games against the Bucs for each of the last four seasons, and they only beat Tampa Bay 31-24 in New Orleans earlier this season. The Saints are coming off an embarrassing 26-9 beatdown at the hands of Atlanta last week that may have showed a potential path to victory for the underdogs.

Atlanta dominated the line of scrimmage against New Orleans, holding the Saints to 52 rushing yards while sacking Drew Brees six times on the day. The Falcons’ defense had been abysmal, particularly with the pass rush, prior to that win on Sunday, so the Buccaneers could break through in an unexpected manner. Six of Tampa Bay’s last eight games have been decided by one score so keep that in mind when considering the NFL betting odds for this one.

MIAMI DOLPHINS +5.5 OVER BUFFALO BILLS

The jokes about Miami are over. The Dolphins have won two straight games after going on the road to stun the Colts in Indianapolis last week, and they have shown fight that no one knew this team possessed. Ryan Fitzpatrick has played well enough to pull out two victories, and Miami proved it could hang with Buffalo last month.

The Bills were trailing the Dolphins 14-9 entering the fourth quarter last month before scoring a special teams touchdown and converting on short field to beat Miami 31-21. Buffalo’s offense didn’t look great in the win, compiling just 17 first downs and 305 total yards against Miami’s defense, and Josh Allen has had his share of woes in recent weeks.

Allen is struggling with his accuracy once again. He hasn’t thrown the interceptions that have plagued him during his rookie campaign, but he has averaged less than 7.0 YPA in three of his last five games, and he has completed under 60 percent of his passes this season. That makes Miami a live dog on Sunday, and betting the moneyline isn’t a bad idea.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES +3.5 OVER NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Everyone is going to be hyping this as a rematch of Super Bowl LII, but neither team has more than a handful of active players that took part in that epic game. Both teams are coming off a bye week and have had plenty of time to prepare. New England is seething after losing to Baltimore prior to its bye week, while Philadelphia is feeling good after winning two straight games.

New England’s dominant start to the season may have been undercut by how poorly the AFC has fared this year, so this could be a great price for Philadelphia. The Patriots can’t expose the Eagles in the downfield passing game like Minnesota and Dallas did earlier in the year, and Philly has a great home field advantage.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS +4 OVER KANSAS CITY CHIEFS*

This is a nominal home game for the Chargers, but it won’t be played in Los Angeles or anywhere else in America. Instead, it will be played in Mexico City, as the NFL heads back to Estadio Azteca after cancelling last year’s game between the Rams and Chiefs due to the quality of the pitch.

The field has seen significant investment over the last year to avoid a repeat situation, and all signs point to a thrilling shootout in Mexico City as both the Chargers and Chiefs have explosive offenses and shaky defenses.

Kansas City needs to win this game as the Chiefs are now 6-4 on the year, but the team’s defensive problems have led to hurdles that even Patrick Mahomes can’t overcome.

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