College Football: Arizona Wildcats at Oregon Ducks

By BetOnline November 15, 2019

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The Pac-12 has mostly been mocked in terms of the College Football Playoff but the latest rankings show that both No. 6 Oregon and No. 7 Utah are still very much still in the picture.

That means this week’s game between the Arizona Wildcats and the Ducks has plenty at stake. The Ducks know they will win the Pac-12 North Division and play for the Pac-12 championship, but they hope to not only win their conference, but play LSU or Clemson in the national semifinals for a shot at the national title. They have to win the rest of their regular season games first, though, and that starts with Arizona, who they’re expected to stop.

ARIZONA WILDCATS AT OREGON DUCKS
CFB ODDS: OREGON -27.5
CFB TOTAL: 68.5

WHY THE WILDCATS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The Wildcats can still play offense. They scored 38 points in their most recent game against the Oregon State Beavers and scored 27 points against a talented Washington Huskies defense before that. The Wildcats won’t cover this spread by limiting Oregon’s points – that isn’t a realistic scenario – but Arizona can cover the spread by scoring 30 points themselves, which would force Oregon to approach 60 points to cover. It will only help matters that Arizona has had two weeks to prepare for this game. They have to turn this into a shootout and do plenty of damage themselves. That’s their only path to victory here.

WHY THE DUCKS WILL COVER THE SPREAD

The Ducks have revved up their offense precisely when Arizona’s defense has fallen off a cliff. Oregon wasn’t roaring with offensive efficiency earlier in the year as they beat California at home by a meager 17-7 scoreline. They only had 21 against Stanford and even 35 at home to Montana seems light. However, the Ducks have flipped the switch and come alive. They scored 45 points against Colorado, 35 at Washington, 37 against Washington State, and then 56 at USC. This offense has hummed with efficiency. Oregon’s speed on the perimeter has outclassed each of its last four opponents and it would be downright shocking if Arizona had any answers here. Quarterback Justin Herbert looks a lot better – like the Heisman Trophy contender he was supposed to be – and the Ducks look like a team which now fully trusts itself.

Meanwhile, Arizona’s defense has been a disaster. Coordinator Marcel Yates has been fired, a sign of how urgent this situation truly is. Arizona has allowed 41 or more points in each of its last four games, allowing more than 50 to two of those four opponents. The worst performance was a 56-38 loss to Oregon State.

How bad was it to give up 56 to Oregon State? Get this: Oregon State’s offense was shut out by Washington (whom Oregon scored 35 against) this past Friday. Oregon State’s offense isn’t objectively good and it lit up Arizona’s defense, so imagine what Oregon will do.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE TOTAL

The Oregon defense might limit Arizona to 14 or 17 points, but Oregon seems primed to score at least 50. They’re on a roll, so if they approach 50, they’ll probably cycle in defensive backups in the game in the fourth quarter. That’s when Arizona can add a few scores and push this game over.