What’s Next For Tua Tagovailoa: The 2020 NFL Draft Or Back To Bama?

The Tua Tagovailoa injury was one of the saddest moments many football we’ve seen in a long time. He put his body on the line for Alabama and was such a special player when healthy, redefining the record books for Alabama and the style of offense they play. Looking back, he is the best pure passer the Crimson Tide’s storied program has ever had. But are we looking back when it comes to his college career or is it still looking forward?

Tagovailoa was the sure-fire No. 1 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft before the injury but this might lead him to come back for one more season. Or if he does hit the draft, how will it impact his stock since he’s dealing with a relatively serious injury? Let’s take a closer look at his options.

TOTAL QBS SELECTED BEFORE TUA TAGOVAILOA IN 2020 NFL DRAFT

UNDER 2.5 QBS: -130
OVER 2.5 QBS: -110

If Tagovailoa does head to the NFL Draft, it does feel like his stock is now going to drop. That being the case, the better bet with this prop is on the over, mostly because teams are going to be extremely worried about Tagovailoa’s durability. NFL teams have a profound fear of injuries and if it seems that a quarterback is an injury magnet, someone who simply can’t stay healthy, that will influence their decision.

Remember, this isn’t the first time he’s been banged up. He was impacted by an ankle injury at the end of last season and then suffered a similar injury to his other ankle this season. And now there’s the hip.

Teams might not want to spend the high-end money connected to a Top 10 or Top 15 draft pick if they feel he’s injury prone. The back end of the first round would be the much more natural landing place for Tagovailoa under these circumstances.

It is unfortunate, but it is the likely reality. Tagovailoa’s recovery from the surgery he just had will cause him to miss the NFL Combine and limit the number of opportunities he will have to impress various NFL teams via pro days. There will be at least three quarterbacks taken ahead of him: Joe Burrow is one, Justin Herbert is another, and either Jacob Eason or Jalen Hurts should also go ahead of Tua.

TUA TAGOVAILOA NFL DRAFT POSITION

PICK 11-20: +150
1-10: +200
21-32: +300
ROUNDS 2-7: +300

The Top 10 looks like the least probable of these options. The fear NFL teams have about brittle or frail quarterbacks is pronounced. It is a shame, but it is real: injuries do scare away NFL teams. The option which makes the most sense here is the 21-32 range. Teams will not be on the hook for as much guaranteed money or signing bonuses and they will take less of a hit in terms of their budget. The pick range of 11-20 is possible, but even before Tua suffered his season-ending injury, it was clear that he did not handle blitzes or pressures as well as other quarterbacks in the draft. Joe Burrow had already passed him in the draft order and now the injury will knock him down further.

The 21-32 range is the best bet if you are thinking about the long-term decisions NFL franchises must make.

WILL TUA TAGOVAILOA PLAY FOR ALABAMA IN WEEK 1 OF THE 2020 COLLEGE FOOTBALL SEASON?

NO: -500
YES: +300

After all of the injuries Tua went through, the young man needs to get paid. He’s already proven a lot at Alabama and there’s no real need for him to come back. Think about what he’d be risky too: another injury and the potential to fall even further. Nobody is questioning his talent at his point as they’ve seen him prove it. He has far more to lose.

And keep in mind that Tagovailoa might not be too worried about this development. Getting selected at the top of the draft means you’re going to a bad team. Getting drafted later might mean that he sits for a year, but ends up in a better environment. Just take a look at Lamar Jackson, who was selected at the back end of the first round by the Baltimore Ravens. If Tua goes to someone like the Miami Dolphins or Cincinnati Bengals, he might be running for his life.

At any rate, it’s likely we’ve seen him play his last down at Alabama. He’ll head to the NFL Draft.

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