Week 12 NFL MVP Odds Update

The MVP race is rapidly comping to a close. Here are the current odds from the biggest underdogs to the biggest favorite. 

T-11. TOM BRADY +5000

Brady had a decent MVP case for a while, but the last two games have solidly knocked him out of contention. His saving grace is an easy schedule down the stretch.

T-11. MICHAEL THOMAS +5000

Thomas is the league’s leading receiver by a wide margin even though he spent a good deal of the season without his starting quarterback. It will be tough for a receiver to win the award without breaking a bunch of records, though.

T-11. DREW BREES +5000

Due to his injury, Brees currently sits at 32nd in the league in passing yards. He needed to have an incredible return to have a chance and, so far, that hasn’t happened. He was great in one, terrible in another and didn’t have to do much in the third because the Saints had a big lead. He’d need an incredible final fourth of the season and he’s going against some tough defenses.

T-9. KIRK COUSINS +3300

In many ways, Kirk Cousins’ numbers are similar to Russell Wilson’s. He has 21 touchdowns to three interceptions (Wilson has 23 touchdowns and two interceptions). They’re not too far away from each other in yards per game or completion percentage, either. His early-season struggles are working against him.

T-9. DALVIN COOK +3300

Cook is second in the league in rushing yards, though the Vikings are one of the few teams who haven’t had their bye yet. He’ll close the season with several dream matchups.

8. JIMMY GAROPPOLO +2500

Garoppolo’s numbers aren’t that impressive, but he does play for a 9-1 team and two of his last three games were among his best of the season. As long as the 49ers keep winning, he’ll be a dark horse. He’ll need more games like his recent performance against Atlanta, though.

7. CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY +2000

The Panthers just lost their second straight to fall to 5-5, but McCaffrey still had 191 yards from scrimmage. He’ll need to average 155.5 yards from scrimmage per game for the rest of the season to break Chris Johnsons’ record of 2,509. Considering the Panthers’ situation, the record might not be enough.

6. DAK PRESCOTT +1400

Prescott is back to having the kinds of games he had at the beginning of the season. The problem is the Cowboys are just 6-4. He’s unlikely to get much consideration unless the Cowboys end up being one of the top teams in the NFC.

T-3. PATRICK MAHOMES +1200

Mahomes is coming off by far his worst statistical performance of the season in games he started and finished. After the bye, Mahomes faces several tough secondaries. He had a shot if he and the Chiefs finished the season as dominant as they were in 2019, but it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen.

T-3. DESHAUN WATSON +1200

Watson was arguably the most attractive MVP bet until the Texans got demolished by Baltimore. That’s going to hurt him in any MVP discussion involving Lamar Jackson. He’ll need to come back with a vengeance to win the award.

T-3. AARON RODGERS +1200

Rodgers has thrown one touchdown in his last two games, one of which was an ugly loss to the Chargers. It’s unlikely he’ll get votes unless his numbers pick up. We know he’s capable of it though, considering the tear he went on in October. 

2. RUSSELL WILSON +180

Wilson was the favorite last week, but he was on bye and Lamar Jackson laid waste to the Texans. Wilson finally picked up a signature win in San Francisco and he’s earned the highest QB rating in the league with 23 touchdowns and two interceptions. If Wilson keeps this up and the Seahawks can wrestle the NFC West lead away from the 49ers, it will be difficult to deny him.

1. LAMAR JACKSON +125

Jackson had been running well all season and now his passing numbers have reached the upper echelon. He’s 24th in passing yards per game but fourth in QB rating. That’s incredible considering how productive he is on the ground. He has 25 total touchdowns, which is second only to Wilson’s 26. The two favorites should be going back and forth for the season’s final six weeks.

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