Jacobs Heavy Favorite To Win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year

The race for the 2019 NFL Rookie of the Year award has had many frontrunners. First, it was Kyler Murray. Then it was Daniel Jones, who burst onto the scene with a big comeback win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Then Gardner Minshew II had his moment.

As we enter Week 14, it’s Oakland Raiders runner Josh Jacobs who has moved into the role of the favorite and the board has been cut down to just two players. Here’s a look at who the oddsmakers believe is still in the running.

JOSH JACOBS, OAKLAND RAIDERS
NFL ROY ODDS: -300

The rookie from Alabama has been steady and consistent for the Oakland Raiders, justifying their draft pick so far. Jacobs is already above 1,000 rushing yards for the season and we still have four games remaining. He could realistically hit 1,500 yards, which would be outstanding for a rookie or any back in a season. Of note is the 4.9 yards-per-carry average, a sign of both durability and consistency. The one threat to Jacobs’ attempt to win this award is that the Raiders’ offense has hit a wall in recent weeks, scoring just three points against the Jets and nine points against the Chiefs. He’s also dealing with an injured shoulder, although he’s been playing through it for weeks.

If the Raiders’ offense bounces back and plays reasonably well down the stretch, Jacobs should still be in very good shape for this award – especially if the Raiders push for a playoff spot.

KYLER MURRAY, ARIZONA CARDINALS
NFL ROY ODDS: +200

The Cardinals won three straight games just before the midpoint of the season to pull to 3-3-1. At that point, it looked like Murray had turned a corner, along with the team. However, the Cardinals have lost five straight to completely tumble out of relevance. This losing skid has greatly hurt Murray’s candidacy.

The Cardinals simply haven’t performed well enough for Murray’s individual skill to overcome the team’s weaknesses. However, they lost two very close games to the San Francisco 49ers and Murray played generally well in those games, so it’s not as if he’s being faulted for the losses. On the year, he has 2,866 passing yards, 18 total touchdowns and just six picks. His 59.6 QBR is 11th, which is more than respectable for a rookie.

It has to be said that Arizona head coach Kliff Kingsbury hasn’t used Murray as well as he could have, especially late in the second 49ers game in San Francisco, when the Cardinals had a late lead but were unwilling to throw the ball downfield and test the Niners’ defense.

Murray has to beat the Seattle Seahawks in Seattle in Week 16 and more realistically, he probably needs to beat both the Seahawks and then the Los Angeles Rams in Week 17 if he wants a shot.

D.K. METCALF, SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Metcalf was on the board earlier in the week at +2500 but he’s now off. He’s likely the only other rookie with a shot here.

The young receiver out of Ole Miss has shown how talented he is, getting free for deep-ball touchdown catches from Russell Wilson. Metcalf has been an important part of the Seahawks’ offense and their potent passing game. However, Metcalf has committed huge fumbles in two of the Seahawks’ last three games, and both fumbles – one against the San Francisco 49ers, the other one against the Minnesota Vikings – have come on Monday Night Football, when the whole NFL is watching. Metcalf also dropped an easy touchdown pass on Nov. 24 against the Philadelphia Eagles.

He still has 44 grabs for 704 yards and five touchdowns, but he has made way too many big mistakes to be viewed as a reasonable contender for the award.

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