College Football Playoff Odds Update 12/6/19

We will find out the four participants in the College Football Playoff on Sunday. Only seven teams have a chance of hearing their names called by the Selection Committee, and four teams are fighting for one spot as Ohio State, LSU, and Clemson are essentially in the playoff already as the only remaining unbeaten teams in the nation.

Georgia, Oklahoma, Utah, and Baylor are vying for that last spot. The Bulldogs control their own destiny as a win over LSU in the SEC Championship Game would grant them a spot in the CFP. That would make life easy for the committee, as Georgia has been the best one-loss team in the land for most of the year. A Georgia loss would complicate matters though, especially if Utah and Oklahoma both won. Those two teams both have strong cases to earn the last spot or the other, and both teams are favored by at least a touchdown according to the Championship Week betting odds.

Odds to Win the College Football Playoffs

Team	11/8 Odds	11/15 Odds	11/22 Odds	11/29 Odds	12/6 Odds
Ohio State	+250	+200	+200	+175	+140
LSU	+375	+250	+250	+250	+250
Clemson	+350	+300	+250	+275	+225
Georgia	+1000	+800	+900	+1000	+1200
Oklahoma	+2000	+2000	+2000	+2500	+2000
Utah	+5000	+5000	+3300	+2500	+2000
Baylor	+10000	+10000	+25000	+15000	+10000

After easily beating Michigan in The Game last week, the odds on Ohio State to win the national championship have fallen even further. Ohio State has the No. 4 offense in the country and the No. 2 defense in the country according to SP+, and this team has been the most complete team in the nation throughout 2019. All their wins have been by at least 11 points, and they are heavy favorites against Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Ohio State easily beat Wisconsin the first time around, and a second big win would probably ensure that the Buckeyes were the No. 1 seed in the CFP. That’s important as there are three teams that are head and shoulders above everyone else this year, and there is a significant step down in terms of quality once you get to No. 4. That’s the reason why Ohio State’s national title odds continue to drop, while LSU’s have remained relatively even.

Speaking of LSU, the Tigers are now the third favorite to win it all. They were considered to have a better chance at winning the title than Clemson for all of November, but the defending national champions moved in front of them in this week’s betting odds.

That’s interesting considering what we saw from LSU last week. The Tigers dismantled Texas A&M on the bayou in their season finale, throttling the Aggies 50-7. Joe Burrow locked up the Heisman Trophy with the performance, but the Bayou Bengals have a tougher test than the other two favorites tomorrow. LSU must face Georgia, and the Tigers are only -7 against the Bulldogs.

Clemson has been underrated all year, but the defending champions went 12-0 and cruised to their fifth straight ACC Atlantic title. They are massive 28-point favorites over Virginia in their bid to win five straight ACC titles on Saturday, and their recent dominance has many believing Clemson can win it all once again with superstar quarterback Trevor Lawrence at the helm.

Since squeaking past North Carolina in late September, Clemson has taken things to another level. The Tigers have beaten every opponent by at least 30 points, and that run has corresponded with a drop in their CFP betting odds.

Even if Georgia beats LSU on Saturday to win the SEC, the Bulldogs have a tough road ahead. They will likely earn the No. 4 seed with a win, pitting them against Ohio State. Georgia would be a sizable underdog to Ohio State, and the Bulldogs would probably be an underdog against LSU or Clemson in the national championship.

Either Oklahoma or Baylor will be eliminated from title contention on Saturday afternoon. The Big 12 champion will still need some help to make the CFP though as both teams have a worse case than Georgia to earn the No. 4 seed. Baylor would not be voted in ahead of Utah either considering the Utes are No. 5 in the current CFP rankings, so the Bears need to pull off the upset and have two other results go their way.

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