Week 15 Monday Night Football Trends

In one of the most thrilling games of the season, the New Orleans Saints fell to San Francisco at home in Week 14. The loss secured the 49ers as the top team in the NFC, but it was not to last. Like New Orleans before them, the 49ers struggled with and eventually lost to the Atlanta Falcons at home. That puts the Saints right back in the hunt.

Granted, a win tonight would not put New Orleans back in one of the top two seeds in the NFC. Thanks to tiebreakers (in this case, best win percentage in conference games) if the Saints, Seahawks, 49ers and Packers are all 11-3, New Orleans gets the third seed.

But perhaps the Saints shouldn’t be thinking about the future if they want to avoid San Francisco’s fate. The Colts have wins in Tennessee and Kansas City, so they can beat good teams on the road. They may even get T.Y. Hilton back to help the cause.

If you’re looking for your own rooting interest for tonight’s matchup, here are some trends to inform your betting decisions.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+9) @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

The Saints are 12-17-1 ATS in their last 30 games as home favorites. In their last 10 games as favorites of nine or more at home, they’re 2-8 ATS. They’re on a three-cover streak against the Colts, including their Super Bowl meeting. In their last 10 December games, the Saints have covered three times.

The Colts are 3-1-2 ATS as road underdogs. They’re 2-4-2 ATS outside of the AFC South. In their last five games against the NFC South, they’re 4-0-1 ATS. In their last 20 December games, they’re 8-11-1 ATS.

TOTAL: 47.5

Eight of the Saints’ last nine games against the AFC South have gone over. Five of their last six Monday night games went over.

The Colts went under in 13 of their last 20 December road games. Both of their games against AFC South teams this season went over.

INDIANAPOLIS MONEY LINE: +320
NEW ORLEANS MONEY LINE: -405

The Saints have never lost to the Colts as favorites in the regular season (5-0). They’ve won 16 of their last 20 as home favorites and are 2-0 this season against the AFC South. They’re 6-2 as favorites and 2-0 after a loss.

The Colts are 5-15 in their last 20 games as road underdogs. They’re 2-5 as underdogs this season and have only won one of their last five. 

PROPS

In Drew Brees’ last six home games on Monday night, he’s averaging 380.5 yards per game. He threw 18 touchdown passes over that stretch (three per game).

Michael Thomas is averaging 118.1 receiving yards over his last nine games. He did not score in his first two matchups with AFC South teams.

Alvin Kamara is averaging 47.8 rushing yards and 37.2 receiving yards over his last five games. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 3. 

In five career games not played on Sunday, Jacoby Brissett has never exceeded 215 yards. He had two total passing touchdowns in those games.
 
Marlon Mack is averaging 96.8 rushing yards on the road compared to 69.3 at home. In 2018, Mack averaged 70.4 rushing yards and one touchdown per game in December.

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