Ravens Underdogs For First Time Since Week 9

A smart bettor knows to monitor line movements as the week goes along. Often when the bet is made is nearly as important as who the bet is on. Here are Week 17’s biggest spread moves and the likely reasons for said moves.

CHICAGO BEARS (-3) @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS
OPENING: CHICAGO BEARS (+7) @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS

This game is essentially meaningless. The Vikings had a shot to improve their playoff seeding before their loss to Green Bay on Monday night. Now they’re locked into the sixth seed no matter what.

As such, the Vikings will want to come out of this game healthy. In what will be a familiar theme in this week’s biggest spread movements, it’s unlikely Minnesota’s starters will see their usual snaps or give their usual effort. The Bears should at least have all of their starters for all four quarters.

Kirk Cousins is 0-3 against the Bears since signing with Minnesota, so the Vikings wouldn’t have been in the greatest spot even if they did need to win.

TENNESSEE TITANS (-6) @ HOUSTON TEXANS
OPENING: TENNESSEE TITANS (+1) @ HOUSTON TEXANS

Thanks in part to their victory over Tennessee two weeks ago, the Texans are AFC South champions. They could move from the fourth seed to the third seed if they win and the Chiefs lose but, other than that, they don’t have an incentive to go all out. 

The Titans, on the other hand, have every incentive to win. While it’s possible they could still make the playoffs with a loss, the surest path is beating Houston. At that point, it wouldn’t matter what the other playoff hopefuls (Pittsburgh and Oakland) do in their games. Clearly, this motivational edge is driving a ton of money toward Tennessee.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-5.5) @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
OPENING: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+1.5) @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

This game has no playoff implications, so the movement is likely based on recent performance and motivation.

The Jaguars have lost six of their last seven and every loss was by double digits. They have no idea if their coaching staff will return or what the direction of the team is moving forward.

Indianapolis can at least play for an 8-8 record. Frank Reich is sticking around by all accounts, so the Colts’ morale should be considerably higher.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-2) @ BALTIMORE RAVENS
OPENING: PITTSBURGH STEELERS (+3) @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

Here’s another game featuring one team that needs to win and another that just wants to stay healthy.

Baltimore has the AFC’s top seed and they’ve already ruled out several of their starters for this game. Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram, Marshal Yanda and Earl Thomas are out, just to name a few.

The Steelers need to win this game to make the playoffs. They’ll still need help from Houston to earn the second Wild Card spot, but they’re out if they lose. They’re only favored by two because they’re not particularly trustworthy. They’ve lost two games in a row, including one to the Jets. Even Baltimore’s JV team could give them problems. 

NEW YORK JETS (PK) @ BUFFALO BILLS
OPENING: NEW YORK JETS (+4.5) @ BUFFALO BILLS

This game is also tied to the playoffs. Buffalo is the AFC’s fifth seed no matter what and the Jets are out of contention. Buffalo’s offense will also have to face a defense run by Gregg Williams, which, given his reputation, is not the best news for a team looking to get out of a game injury-free. The Bills’ starters shouldn’t be on the field for long.

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