Bills Struggle Against The AFC South

Buffalo is back in the postseason for the second time in three years. In 2017, they backed into the playoffs with help from the Bengals in Week 17. This year, they entered the final game of the regular season with a playoff spot in hand, allowing them to rest their starters. With double-digit victories for the first time since 1999, the Bills finally have some January optimism.

Houston also had Week 17 off after locking up the AFC South title. It was their second straight and fourth in the last five years, though they have never advanced past the Divisional round. The Texans have some big wins (Kansas City, New England) and some embarrassing losses (Baltimore, Denver). Their range of possible outcomes as wide as it gets.

If you’re looking to bet on Wild Card Weekend, here are some trends to inform your betting decisions.

BUFFALO BILLS (+2.5) @ HOUSTON TEXANS

The Bills had nine covers and two pushes this season, giving them one of the highest cover rates in the league. They’re 6-0-2 ATS on the road, 4-0-2 ATS as road underdogs and 4-1 ATS after a loss. They’re 11-8-1 ATS in their last 20 games as road underdogs.

The Texans are 1-5 ATS as home favorites this season. They’re 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games against the AFC East. They had two covers in their final seven games of the season. They’re 7-13 ATS in their last 20 games as home favorites.

TOTAL: 42.5

The total went under in 15 of Buffalo’s last 20 games as road underdogs. Nine of their last 10 games against the AFC South went under. Twelve of their 16 games this season went under, including nine of their 10 non-division games.

Seven of Houston’s last 10 games against the AFC East went over. They went under in four of six games as home favorites. Thirteen of their last 20 games as home favorites went under.

BUFFALO MONEY LINE: +122
HOUSTON MONEY LINE: -142

The Bills have won three of their last 10 against the AFC South. They’re 1-3 against Houston this decade and 7-3 in non-division games this season. They were underdogs in nine games this season and won four times.

Houston has two wins in their last 10 games against the AFC East. Both were against the Jets. They’ve won 22 of their last 30 games as home favorites. They’re 5-0 after a loss this season and 4-2 as home favorites.

PROPS

Josh Allen is averaging 228.3 passing yards on the road compared to 157.9 at home. He threw six interceptions in Buffalo’s first four games but has only thrown three since. The Texans allowed the fourth-most passing yards in the league.

John Brown is averaging 82.8 receiving yards on the road and 56.9 at home. He scored four of his six receiving touchdowns on the road.

The Texans allow 6.5 receptions to running backs per game. Only the Colts allowed more. They also allowed the second-most receiving yards to running backs per game (55.7) and allowed eight receiving touchdowns to running backs–tied for the most in the league.

Deshaun Watson has 40 passing touchdowns and 10 interceptions at home in his career. He has nine fewer touchdowns and nine more interceptions on the road. His 109.2 rating against the AFC East is his highest against any division.

In four career playoff appearances, DeAndre Hopkins is averaging 59.5 yards per game. The Bills allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards in the league this season.

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