Titans Winless In New England Since 1993

The Titans were once 2-4, having scored between zero and seven points in three of four games. Then Ryan Tannehill became the starter and Tennessee is now playoff-bound with a 9-7 record. They have the NFL’s leading rusher in Derrick Henry and a Rookie of the Year candidate in A.J. Brown. The bad news: if they want to advance any further, they’ll need to beat the Patriots in Foxboro.

As we’ll soon see, no team this decade has more postseason success than the Patriots. But the fact that they’re the third seed at all illustrates their recent struggles. Needing to win at home as 17.5-point favorites to secure a bye, New England fell short. They won two of their final five games and one of them was against the worst team in the league. Despite being 12-4, they seem strangely vulnerable, making this arguably the most compelling matchup of the week.

If you’re looking to bet on Wild Card Weekend, here are some trends to inform your betting decisions.

TENNESSEE TITANS (+5) @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

The Titans have covered in one of their last four playoff games. They’re 5-3 ATS on the road this season. They have one cover in their last seven road games against the AFC East.

The Patriots have three covers in four games against Tennessee in the last 10 years. They have seven covers in their last 10 home playoff games. They’re 20-10 ATS in their last 30 games as home favorites.

TOTAL: 44

Seven of Tennessee’s 10 non-division games went over. They were tied for the third-most overs of any team this season with 10. 

Five of New England’s last six home playoff games went over. Thirteen of their last 20 games against the AFC South went over.

TENNESSEE MONEY LINE: +195
NEW ENGLAND MONEY LINE: -225

The Titans have one playoff win since 2005. They’re 6-4 in non-division games this season. They’ve lost four straight road games against the AFC East. They’ve won eight of their last 20 as road underdogs.

The Patriots are 6-2 at home. The last time they lost to Tennessee at home was in 1993. They’ve won 26 of their last 30 games as home favorites. They’ve won 17 of their last 20 against the AFC South. However, they’ve only won one of their last four. Bill Belichick has a 20-3 record in home playoff games with the Patriots and has won nine of his last 10. 

PROPS

Ryan Tannehill threw for more than 270 yards in five of 10 starts. He threw multiple touchdown passes nine times.

Four running backs rushed for over 100 yards against New England this season. They needed between 15 and 25 carries to do it. Derrick Henry led the league in carries and averaged 20.2 per game.

The Patriots have allowed one rushing touchdown to a running back this season.

Since Week 12, A.J. Brown has four games with 100 receiving yards and a touchdown.

Tom Brady has one 300-yard game since Week 7. He’s averaging 245 yards per game in his career against Tennessee.

The Titans have allowed nine touchdowns to tight ends–tied for fourth-most in the league.

James White averages 7.7 targets per game in the postseason.

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