Brees Favored To Be Leading Passer, Henry Favored To Be Leading Rushing On Wild Card Weekend

The NFL Wild Card Weekend is coming up and various players will take the spotlight. While most of the betting action is focused on the spreads, moneylines and totals, BetOnline has posted a number of game props for Saturday and Sunday’s action. Let’s take a closer look at the Wild Card Weekend props and see if there’s value betting on the leading passer, rusher or receiver:

MOST PASSING YARDS THIS WEEKEND

DREW BREES: +150
RUSSELL WILSON: +500
CARSON WENTZ: +600
KIRK COUSINS: +600

The natural favorite is indeed Brees – not just because he is very good, and not just because he is playing at home, but because he is playing in a domed stadium, where he and the Saints’ receivers should have ideal conditions. Brees ended the year on a tear as he finished December with 15 touchdowns, no interceptions and 297.0 passing yards per game.

Moreover, the Saints will be playing the Minnesota Vikings, who have not played very well in the month of December and are limping into the playoffs after losing two straight and three of their last five. The Vikings allowed 252.4 passing yards per game on the road, which ranked 22nd in the NFL. That’s a stark drop from the 214.8 they allow at home, which is the ninth-best mark.

The other three quarterbacks don’t have the same favorable circumstances. Wilson will throw because the Seahawks have injured running backs and have a banged-up offensive line. Carson Wentz has a badly injured offensive line in front of him for the Philadelphia Eagles and no healthy wide receivers, so the Eagles will likely aim to run the ball. What will help both Wilson and Wentz is that their opposing secondaries are either bad (the Eagles have been poor in pass coverage all season) or injured (the Seahawks’ Quandre Diggs has missed recent games and is far from 100 percent healthy). However, the weather in Philadelphia on Sunday is likely to be cold and if other elements get into the picture, it will be harder for either Wilson or Wentz to throw consistently.

Of course, someone like Tom Brady or Ryan Tannehill could surprise, but Brady has been really shaky in the second half of the season. There might be some value with Tannehill, who had 1322 passing yards, 12 touchdowns and two interceptions in December.

MOST RECEIVING YARDS THIS WEEKEND

MICHAEL THOMAS: +175
DEANDRE HOPKINS: +400
STEFON DIGGS: +500
ZACH ERTZ: +900

If Brees is the natural favorite to lead all wild card passers in throwing yards, then Michael Thomas is the natural choice as a receiver. Thomas is a dominant player who will be going against a suspect Minnesota secondary which got torched by the Seattle Seahawks on Monday Night Football a few weeks ago. The Saints are heavy favorites against the Vikings, and if they blow out Minnesota, there is a very good chance that Thomas will have accumulated a very large total of receiving yards.

DeAndre Hopkins could get a lot of receiving yards if only because he is a star receiver who works really well with Deshaun Watson. The Buffalo Bills have a very good defense, thought, and Hopkins will be shadowed by Tre’Davious White, who just got named as a first-team All-Pro. He could limit Hopkins output.

If Kirk Cousins could rack up a lot of passing yards with the Vikings in hurry-up mode, trailing by two or three touchdowns, Stefon Diggs could be the beneficiary of that same dynamic as the Vikings’ main wide receiver.

Zach Ertz could get the most receiving yards because Seattle has banged-up linebackers (Mychal Kendricks is out) and safeties (Quandre Diggs is not fully healthy, but he might play. The Seahawks might have a very tough time matching up with him. However, if you’re going to bet Ertz, make sure he’s playing as he’s been limited in practice all week.

MOST RUSHING YARDS THIS WEEKEND

DERRICK HENRY: +150
DALVIN COOK: +250
SONY MICHEL: +600
ALVIN KAMARA: +750

Derrick Henry is the NFL’s leading rusher and is a tremendous running back. The Titans’ offense has been functioning extremely well since Tannehill took over under center, so it makes sense to view Henry as the favorite here. The question is will the Patriots stellar defense be able to slow him down – especially since they’re at home?

Dalvin Cook was recently injured, but he is still so dangerous when he is on the field, so he is certainly in play. If the Vikings are to get the win this week, it’s likely that Cook gets on a roll. His counterpart, Alvin Kamara, is also on the board but he’s mostly used as a receiver out of the backfield. He finished the year with just 797 rushing yards and didn’t crack the 100-yard mark in any game this season.

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