Texans Winless As Postseason Underdogs

Anyone on social media in the third quarter of the Buffalo-Houston game would have seen just about everyone calling for Bill O’Brien’s job as the Texans trailed, 16-0. Then Deshaun Watson engineered a comeback that included 19 straight points before winning in overtime. Now there are no jobs being called for, but the Texans know better than anyone that they’ll need a better performance to advance to the AFC Championship.

The Chiefs have the second-longest active win streak in the league. They’re 6-0 since Week 11 and will host a Divisional playoff game for the second consecutive season. Though Patrick Mahomes did not build on his MVP season, he’s still one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in the league. With the Patriots out of the way, this could be his year to reach the Super Bowl.

If you’re looking for some action on the Divisional round, here are some trends to inform your betting decisions.

HOUSTON TEXANS (+9.5) @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

The Texans are 4-2 ATS as road underdogs. They’re 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games as road underdogs of 9.5 or more. They have one cover in four postseason games as underdogs. They’ve covered in all three of their previous trips to Kansas City. They’re 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games as road underdogs.

The Chiefs closed the season with five covers and a push. At 10-5-1 ATS, they’re tied for the highest cover rate in the league. They’re 8-3-1 ATS against the AFC. In 10 home playoff games since 1991, they have just one cover. 

TOTAL: 51

The Texans were tied for the third-most unders in the league this season (10). Their last three games as road underdogs also went under.

Seven of Kansas city’s 10 non-division games went over. Five of their eight home games went over as well. Eight of their last 10 games as favorites of 9.5 or more went under.

HOUSTON MONEY LINE: +350
KANSAS CITY MONEY LINE: -450

Houston is 9-4 against the AFC. They’re 2-8 in their last 10 games as road underdogs of 9.5 or more. They’ve had three road postseason games in their history and lost all three. They’re 0-4 all-time as postseason underdogs.

The Chiefs are 10-3 as favorites this season but 5-3 at home. They’ve won nine of their last 10 as home favorites of 9.5 or more.

PROPS

The Texans allowed the second-most receptions per game (6.5) and yards per game (55.7) to running backs this season. They just gave up six receptions and 76 yards to Devin Singletary.

Deshaun Watson has 31 touchdowns and 19 interceptions on the road compared to 40 touchdowns and 10 interceptions at home. The split manifests itself in his two meetings with Kansas City. Facing them at home in 2017, he threw five touchdown passes and no interceptions. In Kansas City earlier this season, he had one touchdown pass and two interceptions.

Patrick Mahomes averaged 286.5 passing yards in two playoff games. He threw for 273 yards in his only previous meeting with Houston.

LeSean McCoy has never had more than 77 rushing yards in a playoff game. He’s averaging 58.5 rushing yards in his last two games against Houston.

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