Davante Adams A Non-Factor In Road Playoff Games

The Packers have flown under the radar this postseason, which is fine by them. After hanging on to beat the Seahawks, the Packers return to the NFC Championship for the first time in three years. Despite a Hall of Fame career, Aaron Rodgers still has just one Super Bowl ring. To get a second, he’ll need to take down the NFC’s top seed on the road.

San Francisco made three straight trips to the NFC Championship at the beginning of the decade, but things took a turn for the worse in the post-Harbaugh era. After having the second pick in the draft last April, the Niners are back competing for a Super Bowl berth. They’ve earned their position as 7.5-point favorites thanks in part to opening the postseason with a dominant win over Minnesota.

If you’re looking for some action on the NFC Championship, here are some trends to inform your betting decisions.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (+7.5) @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

With 11 covers, the Packers are tied for the most in the league this season. This season, they’re 3-1 ATS as road underdogs. Since 2009, the Packers are 7-3 ATS in road playoff games. They’re 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 games as road underdogs of 7.5 or more. They’ve covered in three of their last four road games against the 49ers.

The 49ers are 4-1 ATS with a rest advantage. They’re 8-3 ATS outside of the NFC West. In their last 10 games as home favorites of 7.5 or more, they’re 3-6-1 ATS. They’ve covered three of their last four home playoff games.

TOTAL: 46.5

The Packers are tied for the third-most unders in the league with 10. Each of their seven overs came against non-division opponents. Three of their four games as road underdogs went under. Seven of Green Bay’s last 10 road playoff games went over. Seven of their last 10 games as road underdogs of 7.5 or more also went over.

Seven of San Francisco’s 11 non-division games went under. In five games with a rest advantage, they had three unders and a push.

GREEN BAY MONEY LINE: +275
SAN FRANCISCO MONEY LINE: -330

The Packers are 11-2 against the NFC and 5-0 with a rest disadvantage. Dating back to 2006, they’ve lost seven straight as underdogs of 7.5 or more. Since 2012, they’re 3-1 when playing in San Francisco. 

The 49ers are 10-2 as favorites. They’re 7-3 in their last 10 games as home favorites of 7.5 or more. Since 2011, they’re 3-1 in home playoff games. 

PROPS

Aaron Rodgers has thrown multiple touchdown passes in six straight postseason games. He has three or more touchdown passes in seven of 18 postseason games (39 percent). Against the 49ers, he has 17 touchdowns and three interceptions in nine career matchups. However, the worst performance of those nine matchups came earlier this season.

Davante Adams averages 134 yards per game at home in the playoffs, but just 36.75 on the road. He had more receiving yards last week (160) than all four of his road postseason games combined (147).

Most of Jimmy Garoppolo’s touchdown passes this season (44 percent) came in three games: at Arizona, vs. Arizona and at New Orleans. He threw one touchdown pass seven times and no touchdown passes three times.

In four career games against the Packers, Tevin Coleman has never topped 45 rushing yards. Last week’s 105 rushing yards were a postseason career-high. Before that, he averaged 46.8 rushing yards over five playoff games.

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