49ers Undefeated ATS As Underdogs

The 49ers are back in the Super Bowl after an eight-year hiatus. Though basically the entire organization is different, the way they’re winning is the same: running the ball and playing defense. Tevin Coleman took care of the Vikings while Raheem Mostert was even more dominant against Green Bay. Meanwhile, Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers had no answers. Of course, their toughest challenge of the postseason awaits.

Having fully recovered from his midseason knee injury, Patrick Mahomes is playing out of his mind. His postseason QBR of 95.5 is easily the highest in the league, as he and Russell Wilson (89) are the only quarterbacks who made it above 70. His eight touchdown passes are three ahead of second-place Ryan Tannehill and the Titans have played one more game than Kansas City. Though Mahomes would be the frontrunner for postseason MVP, he faces a San Francisco defense that leads all playoff teams with 15 points allowed per game.

If you’re looking for some action on the Super Bowl, here are some trends to inform your betting decisions.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (+1) VS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

The 49ers are 9-3 ATS outside of the NFC West. They’re 5-0 ATS as underdogs. In two games after a bye week this season, they’re 2-0 ATS and covered the spread in those games by an average of 16.5 points per game. In their five ATS wins as underdogs, they covered the spread by an average of 12.3 points per game. They’ve been playoff underdogs nine times in the last 35 years and have covered twice. Dating back to 2017, they’ve covered six of their last seven as underdogs of less than a field goal. They have three straight covers against the AFC West.

The Chiefs enter the Super Bowl with the highest cover rate (70.6) in the league. They have seven covers and a push in their last eight games. They covered both of their games after a bye by an average of 14.8 points per game. They’re 10-4-1 ATS as favorites but just 2-2 ATS against the NFC. Since 2015, they’re 5-2 ATS when favored by less than a field goal.

TOTAL: 54

Both of San Francisco’s games after a bye went under by an average of 10.5 points per game. Three of their four games against the AFC went under. 

Nine of Kansas City’s 12 non-division games went over. Five of their last six games against the NFC went over.

SAN FRANCISCO MONEY LINE: +105
KANSAS CITY MONEY LINE: -125

The 49ers won both of their games after a bye by an average of 22.5 points per game. They’re 4-1 as underdogs. Since 1986, the 49ers are 1-8 as underdogs in the playoffs. They’ve won six of their last seven as underdogs of 2.5 or less.

The Chiefs are 12-3 as favorites. They won both of their games after a bye by an average of 25.5 points per game. They’ve won five of their last seven when favored by less than a field goal.

PROPS

Jimmy Garoppolo has one touchdown pass in two postseason games. Most of his touchdown passes in the regular season (44 percent) came in three games: at Arizona, vs. Arizona and at New Orleans. He threw one touchdown pass seven times and no touchdown passes three times.

The last time San Francisco faced Kansas City, Alfred Morris and Matt Breida combined for 157 rushing yards. They averaged 6.54 yards per carry.

Patrick Mahomes is averaging 2.75 passing touchdowns in four playoff games. In his lone previous start against the 49ers, he threw three touchdown passes.

In four postseason games with the Chiefs, Sammy Watkins is averaging 91.5 receiving yards per game. In his worst game of the four, he picked up 62.

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