We are in the final stretch to the Kentucky Derby as all the major prep races are complete and

now we are just weeks away from the “Run for the Roses” at Churchill Downs. And in recent

weeks, we’ve seen two 3-year old stars pulling away from the rest of the competition when it

comes to the futures betting odds. But remember, just because a horse is the favorite doesn’t

mean he will win.

Favorites At The Derby

Only 40 favorites have won the Derby since 1908 with the last one coming in 2018 when Justify

won it on his way to becoming the 13th Triple Crown winner. And in the last decade we’ve also

seen Nyquist (2016), American Pharoah (2015), California Chrome (2014) and Orb (2013) in the

winner’s circle. But recently, it’s been about the longshots as the last three winners have all

been double-digits odds, including Rich Strike, who was an incredible 80-1 in 2022.

Sierra Leone +300

Sierra Leone has been perfect in 2024. Two starts, two wins including in the Blue Grass Stakes

at Keeneland. The colt is on his game and will likely be no worse than the second choice on

May 4th. Trainer Chad Brown plans to give the horse a couple more workouts before the big

race. Many feel the 1 1/4 mile race suits Sierra Leone just fine.

Fierceness +300

After a disappointing third place finish in the Holy Bull back in February, Fierceness came back

to absolutely crush the competition in the Florida Derby winning by more than 13 lengths. He

also put up an eye-popping 110 Beyer Speed Figure, the second time he’s put up that number in

his last three starts. His latest performance likely gives Fierceness the edge as the morning line

favorite.

What’s interesting about both of these horses is back in November they were both over 100-1 at

most sportsbooks and about 20-1 less than two months ago.

LONGSHOTS TO CONSIDER

Track Phantom +2000

Track Phantom has already worked out at Churchill Downs as he gets set for the Derby. He

was second in the Risen Star Stakes and then finished fourth in the Louisiana Derby. Trainer

Steve Asmussen says the colt will wear blinkers for the first time in the Kentucky Derby, which

could make a big difference.

Honor Marie +2500

Honor Marie also worked out at Churchill after a second place finish in the Louisiana Derby.

The 3-year old had two wins as a two-year old but in 2024 he is winless. His connections feel

Honor Marie is ready and has a chance to pull off his first win of the year in the most prestigious

race in the sport

Odds Kentucky Derby Matchups

Sierra Leone -135

Fierceness +115

Catching Freedom -110

Forever Young -110

Just A Touch -175

Dornoch +155

Resilience -125

Track Phantom +105