2024 Cy Young Odds: American League

By Luis March 25, 2024

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It’s no surprise Gerrit Cole is the favorite once again to win the AL Cy Young Award for the

second straight here. In 2023, he began the year as the favorite. But interestingly, when you

look back at the last 9 AL Cy Young winners, the average betting odds are +8200, which shows

there’s always a chance an unknown pitcher can breakthrough and win, like Robbie Ray did it in

2021 and Rick Porcello in 2016, both began the season at an incredible +20000. Let’s take a

look at some of the options, and perhaps a longer shot pick that could pay out.

Usual Suspects

He is the reigning Cy Young and coming off arguably the best season of his career. Gerrit Cole

led the American League in ERA, shutouts, hits allowed per nine and innings pitched. Cole has

finished in the top 10 in Cy Young voting for six consecutive seasons. He’s posted an ERA of

3.50 or better in every season with the Yankees. Another dominant season and he’ll be in the

conversation, but at these shorter odds, you may want to look for better value elsewhere.

Kevin Gausman finished 12-9 with an ERA of 3.16 last season with the Blue Jays and averaged

almost 12 strikeouts per nine innings. His record should have been better considering Toronto

was fifth in batting but for whatever reason Gausman didn’t receive run support in his starts. He

was shut out in four of his last 15 starts. In 32 games overall, Gausman was supported by three

or fewer runs in half of those games. If he gets better run support in 2024, he should get in

contention for the Cy.

While the AL East has the two favorites for this award, there could be another surprise

contender. Corbin Burnes has some great stuff and can contend with any elite pitcher. He

always won the NL Cy Young in 2021 at +4000 odds. He’s still in his 20’s and 4 years younger

than Cole and 3 years younger than Gaussman.

George Kirby could be in store for a breakout season. He’s found a groove excelling at getting

hitters to chase pitches and finding a way to pound the strike zone. The 26-year-old has some

of the best control in baseball. He went 13-10 with a 3.35 ERA, walking just 19 batters in 190.2

innings.

2023 Gerrit Cole (NYY) +650

2022 Justin Verlander (HOU) +1600

2021 Robbie Ray (TOR) +20000

2020 Shane Bieber (CLE) +1200

2019 Justin Verlander (HOU) +1500

2018 Blake Snell (TB) +10000

2017 Corey Kluber (CLE) +4000

2016 Rick Porcello (BOS) +20000

2015 Dallas Keuchel (HOU) +15000

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