A Year Removed From World Series, Red Sox Not Expected To Be Competitive

The Boston Red Sox watched everything go right for them in 2018 when they won the World Series. They were the best team that season but they also steered clear of significant injuries. Manager Alex Cora pushed all the right buttons and the team roared through the playoffs and won the World Series. In 2019, though, everything which didn’t go wrong in 2018 suddenly went wrong. The Red Sox stumbled, the lineup didn’t come together and injuries took a toll. While the Red Sox still won 84 games, they didn’t even make the playoffs.

The offseason has been a complete nightmare as one of the richest franchises in all of sports traded their former MVP Mookie Betts because they didn’t want to open up the pocket book for him. Beyond that, manager Alex Cora was fired because he was part of the Houston Astros sign-stealing scandal. That’s led to the Red Sox futures tumbling down the board as they’re now not even expected to make the playoffs. What should bettors expect from them in 2020?

BOSTON RED SOX ODDS

TO WIN WORLD SERIES: +3300
TO WIN AL PENNANT: +1600
REGULAR SEASON WIN TOTAL: 84.5

OFFSEASON CHANGES

The Red Sox traded Mookie Betts and David Price to the Los Angeles Dodgers for super-prospect Alex Verdugo and two other high-profile prospects plus cash. The team also acquired left-handed starting pitcher Martin Perez and also signed Jonathan Lucroy and Kevin Pillar.

The Betts-Price deal was a spectacular capitulation as Boston claimed it needed to save money and resources, which is out of line with one of the most profitable franchises in baseball in one of the sport’s most enthusiastic big-city markets. We’ve hardly ever seen them pinching pennies. Betts was not just an excellent player; he was a thoroughly popular player in Boston. Price was not a popular player due to his playoff struggles (though he did help the team win a World Series, so it is not as though he was a complete villain) and his contract was an albatross, so it’s good they got out from under that, but Betts was the toast of the town. Shipping Betts is a baffling lack of perspective from the Red Sox organization, a move they are likely to pay for this year and beyond.

IF THINGS GO RIGHT…

The Red Sox, in a best-case scenario, probably cannot be expected to defeat the New York Yankees for the American League East Division championship. The scenario where everything goes right for them is the batting lineup doesn’t take a big step back while the rotation gets back a healthy and effective Chris Sale. If that’s the case, maybe Boston can beat out the Tampa Bay Rays, who were remarkably effective with a lot of obscure, no-name players last season, but the Yankees seem out of reach for Boston, which finished well behind the Bombers last year. Boston seems to have a ceiling in or near the 85-win mark. Losing Betts (more than Price) lowers the heights to which this team can climb.

IF THINGS GO WRONG…

The Red Sox could finish with only 75 wins. Is it likely? Probably not. It is, however, possible. Morale is probably very low in the clubhouse after the Betts trade and the Cora firing. The lack of Price on the roster will mean that other pitchers will have to eat up innings and that’s a big concern because we’re not exactly sure what Sale will do this year. He’s going to begin the season on the injured list. How good is a rotation that’s headlined by Nathan Eovaldi and Eduardo Rodriguez?

Plus, the super-prospect from the Dodgers the Red Sox traded for in the Betts deal, Alex Verdugo, was revealed to have had a structural injury which will keep him sidelined for months, not merely weeks. The Red Sox’ doctors should have identified the problem before going through with the trade, but they didn’t. That deal is a disaster relative to the 2020 season, because Verdugo isn’t likely to play very much, and if he does play, he probably won’t be at full strength. The best the Red Sox can hope for with Verdugo is for him to be 100-percent healthy before the 2021 season. This year figures to be a rough one in Boston.

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