AL Series of the Week: Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros

By BetOnline June 7, 2019

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We’re about a third into the season, the standings are starting to shake out, and we’re starting to get a pretty good idea of where teams are sitting within their respective divisions, as well as in their leagues in general. Even this early, we’ve got some strong contenders, and some definite non-contenders. Sometimes those teams play each other, and underdog bettors’ eyes light up.

WHAT ARE THE ODDS?

Which brings us to this weekend’s 3-game series that takes the 19-43 Baltimore Orioles to Minute Maid Park to face the 43-21 Houston Astros. For anyone keeping track, that’s the current best team in baseball hosting the team that is tied with the Kansas City Royals at the very bottom of the big league standings.

On paper, this is just about as lopsided as a matchup gets. On the one side, you’ve got the Astros, who are +400 to win it all in the World Series. And on the other hand, you’ve got the Orioles, who are +200000 just to win the AL East.

Anyone could be forgiven for going with the safe bet on this one. The Astros have a near mind-boggling advantage. But of course, with every massive advantage comes a major underdog, and sometimes, that’s where all the fun is.

Is there a chance that the Astros won’t sweep the series? Hey, there’s always a chance. And a long shot bet, saddled up with a couple of sure-things, could be a great way to even out the odds.

WHAT TO LOOK FOR

Let’s not beat around the bush here. The Astros have the strong advantage in this series no matter how you look at it. On offence, the Astros are batting .271 with a .824 OPS, compared to Baltimore’s .239. But the Orioles nevertheless have a couple of strong bats in Pedro Severino (.286) and Trey Mancini (.306). Hell, even Chris Davis has been starting to turn it around after a record-setting hitting drought.

But it’s in the defence that the cracks start to show. While the Astros pitching staff are boasting a team ERA of 3.57 with a .672 win PTC, the Orioles are downright suffering, with an team ERA of 5.68 for a W-L of .306. And while the Orioles aren’t scheduled to face the Astros’ biggest arm, Justin Verlander (9-2, 2.40 ERA), the unfortunate reality is that pound-for-pound, just about every starting pitcher for the ‘Stros would be favored over just about any stater for the Orioles.

However, there is hope for Baltimore. Andrew Cashner (6-2, 5.04 ERA), arguably the team’s strongest arm at the moment, is scheduled to get the start in the Saturday afternoon game against Framber Valdez (2-2, 3.12 ERA), who is making just his first start of the 2019 season.

This series may very well end up being a total bloodbath. But if the Orioles manage to squeak one out to salvage this series, odds are that it will be on Saturday.