Astros vs Orioles: Odds for Tonight’s Game 1

Camden Yards sets the stage for a critical matchup between two American League contenders with World Series aspirations, as the Houston Astros visit the Baltimore Orioles to kick off a four-game series.

The Orioles are looking to bounce back after a recent slide.

Astros vs Orioles

Orioles Team Total Over 4.5 (+106)

The Baltimore Orioles are primed for a big night at the plate against Houston Astros starter Spencer Arrighetti, who has struggled in recent outings. Arrighetti’s last eight starts have seen him give up a concerning 12.4% barrel rate and a 45.1% hard-hit rate.

These numbers are a recipe for disaster against an Orioles lineup that has consistently performed well against right-handed pitching.

Despite their recent 2-4 slide, the Orioles have managed to average 5.0 runs per game over their last seven contests.

This offensive production comes despite a lower-than-usual .257 BABIP, which is well below their season-long average of .290. Arrighetti’s 4.53 ERA, compounded by the nine homers and 17 walks he’s allowed in his last eight starts, sets up the Orioles for a strong offensive showing.

Baltimore ranks fifth in MLB with a .329 wOBA and second with a .196 ISO against right-handed pitchers this season. Since the All-Star break, those numbers remain strong, with the Orioles posting a .337 wOBA and a .186 ISO. Given these stats, Baltimore is in an excellent position to surpass the 4.5-run mark tonight.

Moreover, the Houston bullpen has been riding a wave of good fortune in August, sporting a 2.73 ERA. However, this is likely unsustainable due to their .230 BABIP (second-lowest in the league) and 84.5% strand rate (second-highest). With a 4.20 bullpen xFIP, ranked 20th in baseball for the month, regression could be on the horizon.

Given these factors, betting on the Orioles to go Over 4.5 runs at +106 offers potential value

Additionally, Corbin Burnes’ consistency as Baltimore’s starter should provide the Orioles with the stability they need to outpace Houston. Burnes has a 3.13 xFIP, ranking fourth among 139 qualified starters over the past four seasons, and he should handle Houston’s righty-heavy lineup effectively.

Astros vs Orioles Opening Odds

• Moneyline: Houston +1.5 (-150) | Baltimore -1.5 (+125)
• Run Line: Houston +135 | Baltimore -160
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Moneyline and Over/Under Analysis

There has been a slight shift in favor of the Houston Astros on the moneyline, with their odds moving from +142 to +137. The total has also seen movement, with the line dropping from 8.5 to 8, indicating some action on the Under.

Trends to Consider

• The Orioles have averaged 5.0 runs across their past seven games, making the Over 4.5 team total an appealing bet.

Game Info

• Location: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD
• Date: Thursday, August 22, 2024
• First Pitch: 7:08 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX

Starting Pitchers

• Houston Astros: Spencer Arrighetti (5-11, 5.20 ERA)
• Baltimore Orioles: Corbin Burnes (12-5, 3.10 ERA)

Latest Injuries

Baltimore Orioles

• Zach Eflin (SP): Out indefinitely – Shoulder
• Keegan Akin (RP): Out indefinitely – Personal
• Jacob Webb (SP): Out indefinitely – Elbow

Houston Astros

• Kaleb Ort (SP): Out indefinitely – Personal
• J.P. France (SP): Out indefinitely – Shoulder
• Ryan Pressly (RP): Out indefinitely – Back