MLB: Can the Pirates Sweep The Dodgers?

• Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
• Date: Thursday, June 6, 2024
• First Pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
• TV Coverage: Sportsnet LA, AT&T Sportsnet Pittsburgh
• Latest Odds: MLB at BetOnline

Starting Pitchers

• Dodgers: Walker Buehler (1-2, 4.26 ERA)
• Pirates: Bailey Falter (3-2, 3.55 ERA)

Dodgers vs. Pirates Latest Injuries

Pittsburgh Pirates

Player	Position	Status	Reported Date
Michael A. Taylor	CF	Out (Personal)	Tue, June 4
Ji-Hwan Bae	SS	Out indefinitely (Undisclosed)	Tue, June 4
Alika Williams	SS	Out indefinitely (Wrist)	Sun, June 2

Los Angeles Dodgers

• No injuries reported

Game Analysis

Dodgers’ Favorable Matchup

The Los Angeles Dodgers are facing a favorable matchup against Pirates lefty Bailey Falter after struggling against Jared Jones and Paul Skenes in the previous games. The Dodgers’ potent offense is expected to challenge Falter early on.

Pirates Looking for Sweep

The Pittsburgh Pirates are aiming for a series sweep with a third consecutive win over the Dodgers. However, this won’t be an easy task with Bailey Falter on the mound against the powerful Dodgers lineup.

Bailey Falter’s Regression

Bailey Falter’s solid 3.22 ERA and 0.95 WHIP are misleading. His stats are buoyed by an unsustainably low .195 BABIP, and his 4.72 xFIP indicates a regression. Furthermore, his increased hard-hit rate (42.8%) and barrel percentage (9.3%) suggest he’s been fortunate thus far. With a decreased strikeout rate (15.3%) and increased walk rate (6.5%), Falter is poised for a statistical correction, and the Dodgers’ bats could accelerate this process.

Dodgers’ Offense vs. Left-Handed Pitching

The Dodgers rank second in MLB in wOBA (.346) and wRC+ (129) against left-handed pitchers. Their impressive 9.4% walk rate against southpaws further highlights their offensive prowess. This could lead to an early exit for Falter.

Walker Buehler’s Return

Walker Buehler, in his sixth start post-Tommy John surgery, is expected to edge closer to his All-Star form. Pittsburgh’s lineup, which ranks 29th in wOBA (.281) and 28th in wRC+ (80) against right-handed pitchers, might struggle against Buehler.

Betting Analysis

Spread and Moneyline

• Dodgers: Large road favorites
• Moneyline Movement: Slight shift towards Dodgers

Pittsburgh has surprised in the series, winning as a +168 underdog in the opener and as a slight favorite (-118) in Game 2.

Over/Under Analysis

• Opening Line: 8.5 (Over -115)
• Current Line: 9.0 (Over -118)

The movement towards the Over likely reflects Bailey Falter’s underlying statistics, suggesting a high-scoring game.

Prediction

Given the Dodgers’ strong performance against left-handed pitching and Falter’s expected regression, the Dodgers are poised to take advantage early. Walker Buehler’s improving form further strengthens the Dodgers’ chances of avoiding a sweep.

Picks

• Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
• Over/Under: Over 9.0

This matchup favors the Dodgers heavily, and with the Over/Under shifting upwards, expect a high-scoring affair driven by the Dodgers’ potent offense against Falter’s vulnerable pitching.