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There has not been a National League Central repeat champion since the Chicago Cubs did it in 2016 and 2017. Since then, the Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals and the Cubs have all traded it back and forth. Will that continue in 2023?
No. Here’s how I see it shaking out.
NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
1. ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Last season: 93-69, NL Central Champion, Lost 0-2 to the Philadelphia Phillies in the NLWS
You could call the St. Louis Cardinals the Dallas Cowboys of Major League Baseball, but it’s hardly fair. The Cardinals have won the World Series a couple of times since Y2K. Still, the similarities between the two franchises over the last decade or so are hard to miss. The Cards show up strong, make the postseason, grab a high seed and immediately, in their first action, get bounced from the playoffs. It’s happened for three seasons in a row in the NL Wild Card Round. Will this year be any different? Spoiler alert — probably not. But, hey, they’ll be good and at least punch their ticket to the dance.
There will be no heroics form Albert Pujols or Yadier Molina this season as they have hung up their spurs. The only key free agent the team added was Willson Contreres, so it’ll be on Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado to carry the load as the roster sets itself and younger guys like Tommy Edman and Brendon Donovan continue to develop into stars.
The starting rotation was good for 15th in the league in ERA a season ago, so they’ll need a better performance from their five — Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery, Adam Wainwright and Jake Woodford. St. Louis should walk to an NL Central title, but the proof of improvement will be getting out of the Wild Card Round, something they haven’t done since 2019.
Projected 2023 record: 96-66
2. MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Last season: 86-76
Odds to win the NL Central: +175
With a streak of four consecutive trips to the postseason at stake, the Milwaukee Brewers faceplanted a year ago and let another team step in and take their annual NLWS loss. Brewers fans like to point at the deadline trade of closer Josh Hader as a catalyst for the said faceplant before the finish line. I’m not sure one closer, especially when they got Taylor Rogers in the deal, could make that much of a difference. Milwaukee is looking for production from prospects this season, and while that’s good for the long term, it’s probably not ideal for a potential postseason appearance this year. Christian Yelich will do the heavy lifting, but he’ll need significantly more help from the rest of the line up until the fresh faces like Garrett Mitchell, Joey Wiemer and Sal Frelick get their legs under them.
The 2021 Cy Young winner, Corbin Burnes, still leads the pitching unit with Peter Strzelecki, Hoby Milner, Javy Guerra and Joel Payamps rounding out the five man rotation. Milwaukee should be able to stay in the hunt most of the year, but will need a significant stumble from the San Diego Padres, New York Mets or Philadelphia Phillies in order to sneak into a Wild Card spot.
Projected 2023 record: 83-79
3. CHICAGO CUBS
Last season: 74-88
Odds to win the NL Central: +450
Having a good, competitive Chicago Cubs team that was in the postseason regularly and won its first World Series in 108 years was pretty nice. Unfortunately, for the last two campaigns, it’s been back to the doldrums for the Cubbies as they’ve posted sub .500 seasons for two years in a row. Instead of blowing up the team, Chicago has gone with a slow bleed and one they’ve attempted to band aid with the addition of Dansby Swanson this season. There’s plenty of pop in the order thanks to Happ, Nico Hoerner and Seiya Suzuki.
The only new arm added to the rotation was Jameson Taillion. He joins Marcus Stroman, fan favorite Kyle Hendricks, Justin Steele and Drew Smyly in the five man. Everybody that writes about any sport has a favorite team in that sport and the Cubs are mine. I covered their Double-A team, the Tennessee Smokies, as its beat writer for years and wrote the team’s official monthly farm report. Nothing would make me happier than to see this team sneak into contention this year and I’ll be rooting for it. I’m just not predicting it.
Projected 2023 record: 80-82
4. CINCINNATI REDS
Last season: 62-100
Odds to win the NL Central: +5000
Hey, as is often the case with the basement dwelling teams in the MLB, there’s some solace in being completely out of the pennant race in March. Look at all the fresh from the farm prospects fans will get to root for and see lose triple digit games this season. Joey Votto will apparently be out for a while and Tyler Stephenson handled with kid gloves, so don’t expect a hot start.
Three second year MLB pitchers lead the way in the rotation, with Nick Lodolo, Hunter Greene and Graham Ashcraft getting the call once more. They’re joined by Luke Weaver and Luis Cessa in the five. There’s not a lot to look forward to here if you’re Reds fan, but, hey, you can always see some great players play live on the visiting team for what should be consistently a cheap ticket.
Projected 2023 record: 60-102
5. PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Last season: 62-100
Odds to win the NL Central: +5000
Pirates fans are the opposite of, say, a Detroit Lions or Cleveland Browns fan. They’ve been through it, sure. They’ve gotten close in their history, fielded some of the best players in the game, but unlike those Lions and Browns backers, Pittsburgh people seem to always have hope. It’s probably because the Steelers and Penguins win consistently, but you can’t say the fanbase is just phoning it in. Because the team certainly seems to be. There’s some good, young talent here to root for in Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, and Ke’Bryan Hayes, but they’ll all end up somewhere else down the line.
The arms look like Mitch Keller, Roansy Contreras, Rich Hill, JT Brubnaker and Vince Velasquez. It’s not a disaster. Keller and Contreras were both once Top 100 prospects, so there’s something to build on there. I know I mentioned in my NL East preview that the Washington Nationals might end up the worst record in the MLB, but they’ll have to out-lose the Pirates to do it.
Projected 2023 record: 52-110
Follow Adam Greene on Twitter @TheFirstMan.
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